Australian Dollar Outlook Negative and Latest Inflation Data Doesn't Help
The Australian Dollar lost over 0.80% versus the US Dollar after the release of inflation data showed price growth undershot analyst’s expectations in Q1.
The declines came on top of earlier lossess for the Australian currency which has been one of the worst-performing majors this week.
Australian inflation data showed prices rose by 2.1% in the first Quarter of 2017, which was above the 1.5% registered in Q4 of 2016 but not as high as the 2.2% forecast by analysts.
The disappointment led to a sell-off in the Australian Dollar which fell from 0.7475 to 0.7420 in the minute following the announcement and then continued selling off for the next half hour and traded with an offered tone for the rest of the day.
The under-estimate inflation result is well below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) target of 3.0% and is likely to lead to them keeping interest rates on hold for even longer than previously imagined.
There is little chance of a rate cut, however, due to the overheating property market which would be likely to heat up even more if the central bank made lending any cheaper than it already is.
Westpac saw a weaker Australian Dollar as more likely due to the lower inflation print:
“Softer AU CPI adds to softer commodity export prices and weighs on AUD, limiting any rebounds. RBA policy remaining on hold for a prolonged period is also underscored by low core inflation,” they said in a note seen by Pound Sterling Live.
The technical outlook is decidedly bearish for AUD against USD.
The pair has formed what looks like a very bearish double top chart reversal pattern and on Wednesday, following the weak CPI data, has just broken below the neckline of the pattern activating a downside target at 0.7300.
There is a strong possibility the exchange rate may now sell-off down to this target.
We would want to see a break below the 0.7450 level first, however, for confirmation of such a bearish run lower.
