Pound vs. Australian Dollar Week Forecast: Tough Resistance Overhead

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- Longer-term rise in GBP/AUD remains intact

- But GBP/AUD to be capped by notable resistance this week

- Slew of domestic data releases to be eyed by markets

The Pound-to-Australian Dollar exchange rate is trading at 1.8951 at the start of the new week, having fallen 0.40% the week prior, but still holding onto a 0.80% advance for the past month.

A look at the charts confirms that the multi-week uptrend in the GBP/AUD exchange rate remains alive, and therefore any short-term losses - such as we saw last week - are ultimately likely to remain shallow.

The GBP/AUD has been trending higher since late July, when a low of 1.7561 was recorded. The uptrend is well established and devoid of any major signals that might suggest it is going to fade anytime soon. Therefore, the uptrend will remain preferred until a significant deterioration is identified.

However, we can identify a pause in the trend, and this could well be theme that plays out over coming hours and days.

The GBP/AUD spiked and was rejected at 1.9099 in mid-October, and has been unable to crack this level since then.

We have seen multiple attempts at testing this ceiling already in November, but the bulls just don't appear to have the momentum.

We would therefore expect any rallies to be tested around 1.9099, and a break above this point will likely open the door to a continuation of the previous rally.

The consolidation in GBP/AUD is actually symptomatic of a number of Sterling exchange rates: many are entering into a period of sideways movement as foreign exchange markets await the outcome of the December 12 election.

The market is showing a preference for a decisive Conservative majority outcome, as this would unlock the deadlock in Parliament and allow for the passing of a Brexit deal. The continuity offered by the Conservative's economic agenda is also seen as a positive for businesses.

However, markets are wary of the deterioration in the Conservative's polling position in the 2017 General Election that saw Theresa May squander a massive lead and her parliamentary majority. Fears that Labour will close the gap on the Conservatives over coming weeks will keep alive some uncertainty, which should ultimately keep Sterling capped and GBP/AUD below that 1.9099 level we identified earlier.

Looking at the Aussie Dollar's domestic calendar, quarterly Construction Work Done for the third quarter is released on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT, with markets looking for a decline of 1.0% to be reported.

A steeper decline might suggest to markets that the Aussie economy continues to struggle, and that more aggressive interest rates at the Reserve Bank of Australia are therefore required.

This would be negative for AUD exchange rates.

Thursday the 28th sees Private New Capital Expenditure released at 00:30 GMT, with markets looking for a contraction of 0.1% for the third quarter.

"The risk is capex plans fall short of expectations given the backdrop of weaker global investment plans, in part because of the US‑China trade tensions. Softer than expected Australian economic data can lift expectations for more RBA rate cuts and bear down on AUD," says Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist with Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Friday sees the release of monthly HIA New Home Sales and monthly Private Sector Credit, both are out at 00:30 GMT. We only have forecast estimates for the credit release, where markets are looking for a reading of 0.3%.

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