Exchange Rate Volatility Giving CFOs a Major Headache: FEXCO

73% of surveyed CFOs accuse the government of underestimating the damage caused to business by Brexit-related exchange rate volatility.

Nearly two thirds of Britain’s medium to large businesses have suffered as a result of the uncertainty triggered by the Brexit referendum, according to research by the international payments specialist, FEXCO Corporate Payments.

In a Censuswide survey of CFOs and key decision makers in UK firms with a turnover of £20m or over, 64% of respondents said their business had been adversely affected by the Brexit debate.

The findings come amid a period of yo-yoing exchange rates, which last Friday say the Pound plunge 1.4% against the Dollar - its biggest one-day swing since the referendum was confirmed in February.

Yesterday Sterling slipped even further, to an eight-week low against the Dollar.

94% of companies polled saying their profit margins are put at risk by exchange rate volatility, many were scathing of the political debate.

73% accused Westminster of underestimating the toll taken on businesses by the referendum uncertainty.

With several recent opinion polls showing the Leave campaign gaining ground, 67% of businesses are already making plans for what to do if the UK votes to leave the EU.

Looking ahead to the likely implications of a Brexit, 45% of respondents feared that exporting to the EU would become harder if the UK withdrew from the European club.

34% felt their profit margins would decrease following a Brexit, double the proportion who believed their margins would improve (17%).

There was a marked regional divide in attitudes towards Brexit, with businesses in London the most likely to envisage negative consequences from a UK withdrawal from the EU.

For example, 51% of London-based firms worry that it will be tougher to export to the EU following a Brexit, double the proportion in North West and South West England (both 25%).

There was also a strong demographic split, with 77% of CFOs and decision makers aged under 35 predicting that exporting would be harder post-Brexit, while fewer than half as many of those aged 55 and over cited this as a concern (35%).

However many exporters have emerged as winners from the sharp fall in the Pound triggered by the uncertainty over the UK’s future – with 46% of firms that export reporting an increase in overseas demand since the referendum was confirmed at the end of February.

David Lamb, Head of Dealing, FEXCO Corporate Payments, comments:

“With exchange rates now more volatile than at any time in the past seven years, the Pound is being jerked around like a rag doll in a hurricane.

“A clear majority of medium to large British businesses feel their bottom line has been harmed by such volatility, and a sizeable minority are already considering laying off staff in the event of a vote for Brexit.

“While a depreciation in Sterling will give a shot in the arm to British exporters, importers lose out as the cost of what they buy from abroad rises.

“Yet in the current climate of tight margins and unpredictable exchange rates, a sudden shift in the value of the Pound can make the difference between profit and loss on a cross-border business deal.

“Failure to fix an exchange rate can work in a company’s favour if it’s lucky, but with the stakes so high, it’s unwise to leave it to chance. Not doing so can leave an importer a hostage to fortune.”