Predictions for South African Rand from ABSA: Further Losses Against Pound, Euro and Dollar
- Written by: Gary Howes
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it's a poor start to the week for the South African Rand which appears to be suffering a bout of risk-off blues.
Global stock markets and commodity prices are not in good shape at the start of the new week and this is being reflected in a weaker ZAR complex.
Global investor sentiment remains an important determinant in the currency’s performance at present.
Also watch the technical setup of the market where we are seeing signs that further weakness may be possible over coming days.
Of note is the Pound to South African Rand exchange rate which as moved back above 17.00.
“GBPZAR is testing the 17.00 level and could reach the 17.50-17.75 area near term, in our view,” says Judy Padayachee at ABSA.
Look for weakness to come against the US Dollar too says Padayachee:
“USDZAR has been trading near the low of a wide multi-month range and we are watching the 13.17 and 13.75 levels for near-term direction.”
However, a monthly close below the 24-month moving average (currently at 13.75) “keeps the ZAR bulls in charge near term.”
ABSA are allowing for a temporary dip towards 12.70 in Q1 17.
“We would look for the larger ZAR-bearish trend to be restored in Q2 17,” says Padayachee.
For EURZAR, ABSA’s focus is on the 14.16 and 14.65 levels for near-term direction.
“Our call is for a temporary push towards the 14.80-15.00 area over the next week or two before topping out to reach 13.50 later in Q1 17,” says Padayachee.
