Bank of England

The British Pound rallied against the Euro and Dollar after the Bank opted to maintain interest rates and quantitative easing levels at existing settings, but warned of the prospect of elevated inflationary levels.

Goldman Sachs have pulled forward the date they anticipate the Bank of England to raise interest rates by more than a year, following this week's stronger-than-expected UK employment report.

Pound Sterling rallied following a further boost to expectations that the Bank of England would raise interest rates in the first half of 2022, although gains were soon relinquished.

Bank of England policy setter Michael Saunders has said inflation could force an interest rate rise next year, a call that comes as new data from Citi shows inflation expectations are at risk of anchoring at higher levels.

“Non-standard measures can support financial stability in the short run, but should those measures not produce the desired macroeconomic revival of growth and inflation expectations to re-steepen the yield curve, financial stability may be at risk at longer horizons,” Huw Pill.

The August monetary policy decision from the Bank of England (BoE) gave companies and households advanced notice that a normalisation of interest rates could be likely over the coming year or so, although as ever there remains a broad plurality of views among analysts and economists on the question of exactly when borrowing costs and savings returns are likely to rise.

The Bank of England is set to raise interest rates in the second or third quarters, according to the reaction of interest rate and foreign exchange markets to the August policy update.

"We see moderate upside risks to GBP if our base case is confirmed as the BoE slowly moves toward the exit" - James Rossiter at TD Securities.

The Bank of England's August 06 policy decision will be an important one for Pound Sterling and financial markets as it will likely provide a template on how it intends to whittle down its balance sheet and raise interest rates once more.

Broadbent says wage-driven inflation should ultimately prove temporary, but his studies and emerging data do now pose a level of uncertainty.

Jonathan Haskel, External Member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee said the rise of the Delta variant of Covid-19 combined with the ending of government support schemes means the Bank must remain risk averse and keep its generous settings in place.

The British Pound has failed to record gains against the Euro and Dollar despite signs of a possible shift in direction at the Bank of England in response to rising inflation and building political opposition to quantitative easing.

The Pound has risen back into the top spot of the major currency performance table for 2021 after two rate setters indicated that “risk management considerations” could lead the Bank of England (BoE) to end its emergency quantitative easing programme as soon as its August policy decision.

The Bank of England could be in the process of signalling to markets that an interest rate rise is likely in coming months, with two members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) now saying such a move is appropriate.

"It is important not to over-react to temporarily strong growth and inflation, to ensure that the recovery is not undermined by a premature tightening in monetary conditions." - Governor Bailey.

The British Pound could take some near-term guidance from an appearance of the Governor of the Bank of England who is to deliver a speech at London's Mansion House.

Chief Economist of the Bank of England Andy Haldane has warned the UK economy is starting to overheat and unless quantitative easing is withdrawn soon uncomfortably high levels of inflation will become embedded.

The British Pound was sold in the wake of the June Bank of England policy event, but a number of noted foreign exchange analysts we follow say the currency will unlikely suffered a significant and enduring setback as a result.

The UK economy has performed better than was expected in recent months and its recovery was continuing at pace at the time of June’s monetary policy decision from the Bank of England (BoE), although the outlook for interest rates is still uncertain and so a matter of debate among economists.

The reaction in Pound Sterling looks to be somewhat overdone and there is the potential for the currency to regain the knee-jerk losses over the near-term.