Exchange Rate Forecasts

Analysis from Capital Economics shows the New Zealand Dollar is likely to struggle as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely lead the next interest rate-cutting cycle, a development that is potentially not too far given fresh warnings from a domestic bank that the economy faces a double-dip recession.

The New Zealand Dollar begins the new week with a notable gain against most G10 currencies, extending its upward momentum from Friday, supported by a firm Asian equity market session and positive investor sentiment.

This week, the Australian Dollar's main focus will be Tuesday's interest rate decision at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which could result in another test of three-year lows against the Pound, or another short-term comeback.

Commerzbank, a leading financial institution, has warned that Pound Sterling is poised for a prolonged and significant decline against both the Euro and the Dollar.

JP Morgan is Bullish USD heading into the second half of the year and identifies Pound Sterling as a candidate to absorb much of this strength.

The Euro is set to extend a rally against the Dollar through the second half of this year says a new strategy note from investment bank Nomura which argues the worst might have already passed for the Eurozone economic data pulse.

"Narrowing interest rate differentials reduce a key NZD tailwind" - ASB.

GBPNZD uptrend firmly entrenched, restest of 2023 highs likely near-term.

The British Pound should remain supported says Goldman Sachs in an analysis of the currency's outlook that follows last week's Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates by 50 basis points.

The Canadian dollar can continue its recovery against the Pound and U.S. Dollar according to new research from global investment bank Commerzbank, which also shows a more determined advance against the Euro for 2024.

EURUSD recovery is effectively over, according to a new analysis from European lender and investment bank ABN AMRO.

The U.S. Dollar will "not give up easily" says UniCredit Bank in a mid-year assessment of the currency market that shows a concerted break above 1.10 in the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EURUSD) is a story for 2024.

Relief for New Zealand Dollar sellers might be in prospect in the second half of 2023 according to Westpac which has released forecasts showing a recovery against the British Pound.

GBPNZD sees 2023 high close by, technical studies remain bullish, UK inflation and Bank of England pose two-way risk.

GBPAUD has stabilised and gone higher but significant risks seen this week.

GBP/USD testing cluster of resistances at 1.2867 & 1.2877 on chart, Bank of England is key risk this week.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has been carried to one-year highs in recent trade but inflation data and a difficult interest decision for the Bank of England (BoE) could lead to volatility in fits and starts with risk of a top forming around a nearby resistance level on the charts in the days ahead. 

Despite the sharp appreciation of the euro following the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, Asmara Jamaleh, a researcher at Intesa Sanpaolo Bank, maintains a cautious stance on revising his euro forecasts higher.

Bank of America has raised its Pound forecasts saying the UK currency will remain supported despite the UK economy's "grim fundamental outlook".

The British Pound's stellar 2023 will ultimately unravel at some point in the coming weeks as the UK economy begins to underperform rivals say BNP Paribas in a new currency forecast note.