Euro Uptrend vs US Dollar Kept Alive by Jittery USD Outlook

An uncertain outlook for the US Dollar half of the EUR/USD exchange arte is keeping hopes alive for Euro bulls despite many analysts calling a market top at the recent 1.20 peak.

The US Dollar - once the defacto safe-haven global currency - appears to now be a victim of uncertainty.

"Investors are confronted with many spinning plates at the moment," says Scotiabank's Shaun Osborne in a note on Tuesday, "North Korea, adverse weather in the US, the ongoing Russia investigation, Brexit, NAFTA talks - beyond more regular fundamental issues."

But it is Dollar weakness which is the standout end-product of this miasma of risk premia.

"The net outcome is market doubt that the Fed will deliver another rate hike this year—and building pressure on the USD generally (watch Brainard and Kaplan comments today)," says Osborne.

Incidentally, Brainard urged caution before raising interest rates any higher, at her speech, whilst Fed's Kaplan has yet to speak.

Whilst acknowledging that the Dollar's recent "tumble" had been "severe", and the currency might be overstretched to the downside, Osborne saw more weakness as likely once a period of consolidation had to process the heavy selling had passed. 

The Euro to US Dollar pair has been subdued in the run-up to the European Central Bank (ECB) rate meeting on Thursday.

The pair, which is currently trading at 1.1901, traded resiliently in the face of Eurozone services and composite PMI data which came out a little below preliminary estimates for August.

Retail sales also fell 0.3% in the month of July, although this was in line with expectations.

"EURUSD remains well-supported but last week’s 1.20+ high remains something of a hurdle for markets," said Osborne.

He noted how 'positioning', which refers to how large speculators and hedge funds are positioned using data from futures exchanges, indicates an aggressively bullish stance on EUR/USD.

Counter-intuitively this indicates the pair will actually probably weaken.

This is because when positioning gets stretched in one direction or another it tends to snap back - so a very bullish position is a sign of excess and a warning of weakness whilst a very bearish position is a sign of excess selling and a warning of strength.

The next primary risk event for the Euro is Thursday's ECB meeting and if anything is going to 'take down' the single currency and fulfill the promise presented by the over-stretched positioning data it is likely to be that event.

"Messaging from the central bank has suggested some discomfort with the EUR’s recent strength and the possibility that policy makers will not be ready to reduce asset purchases until Dec," said Osborne.

Pure technicals are still bullish or neutral.

The pair is "holding in a tight range around 1.19 - something which may persist in the short run," said Osborne.

Price action and trend momentum signals remain bullish, however, "longer run price action suggests some risk that last week’s high may represent a high water mark for the markets for now," he adds.

There is strong evidence of the existence of selling interest in the upper 1.19s which means it will be hard for the exchange rate to re-approach the 1.20 highs. The short-term trend is supported at 1.1865.