Don't Bet on the Dollar in a Protracted Delay to the Election

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The Dollar has risen sharply on Wednesday to recover the ground it lost on Tuesday as it became clear that President Donald Trump had performed markedly better than pre-election polls and modelling suggested he would, which has increased the prospects for a contested outcome to the vote.

The net result of the increase in the uncertainty posed by a delay to the results is a rise in the value of 'safe haven' currencies, such as the Yen, Franc and U.S. Dollar.

The Dollar's relationship with risk therefore lends itself to a view that further gains are possible in the event the result is delayed for a number of days, or even weeks.

However, this assumption might not stand according to some leading foreign exchange analysts we follow and the Dollar could ultimately start to underperform.

"The USD is benefiting for now, but a long delay should boost alternative safe havens like the yen and CHF, which may benefit from diversification," says Marvin Barth, a foreign exchange analyst at Barclays.

The outcome of the election now hangs on results from a few key states: Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Millions of votes remain uncounted and some political commentators say the final result might only be known on Friday. This however assumes there are no legal challenges launched by Trump's team.

"If we end up in a situation where the result is contested, we expect the JPY and gold would be the main outperformers, as the USD might succumb to shifting sentiment were the uncertainty to last into December, for example," says Daragh Maher, Head of Research, Americas, at HSBC in New York. "This pattern of initial USD strength and subsequent weakness was evident in November 2000, when the election result was disputed."

"However, it is difficult to be certain how much of the USD’s movement in late 2000 was a function of US political risk, or the evolving reaction function to the bursting of the dot-com bubble. For now, however, we are not at that point. Instead, markets are waiting to see how this election evolves, and so USD ambiguity is likely to persist," adds Maher.

Financial and foreign exchange market volatility has risen considerably over the course of the past 24 hours and could remain elevated for many hours yet after U.S. President Donald prematurely called himself the winner of the presidential election and signalled the potential for the election to enter a protracted legal battle.

The 'safe haven' U.S. Dollar was bought heavily in mid-week trade after Trump told supporters, "we will win this, as far as I am concerned we already have"; he added he plans to go to the U.S. Supreme Court and wants all the voting to stop. "Frankly, we did win this election," he said.

The rally in the Dollar follows on from a slump seen on Tuesday, when markets positioned for a potential 'blue wave' outcome.

"The US has a strong constitutional process and institutions and is likely to remain the favoured safe haven despite being the epicentre of new uncertainty. But, the longer a delay carries on, the more alternative safe havens likely will benefit from diversification. Anticipation of that likely benefits the JPY and CHF now," says Barth.

Meanwhile, foreign exchange analysts at Deutsche Bank have told clients they no longer see adequate risk-reward in pursuing a strategy of selling Dollars.