UK Economy

A major UK-based bank has upgraded its UK growth forecasts following the sizeable revisions recently announced by the ONS and the economy's resilient performance in the first half of 2023.

The British Pound will remain under pressure against the Euro, Dollar and other major currencies with news UK inflation has come in at higher levels than markets were expecting likely to only offer limited upside, if any.

The British Pound was softer against the Euro and Dollar after the release of UK wage data that hints the labour market continues to cool and will help bring down inflation over the coming months, in line with the thinking at the Bank of England.

The British Pound looks to defend a run of small daily gains against the Euro and a more pronounced short-term rebound against the Dollar but will find little assistance from uninspiring GDP data.

The UK's labour market remained soft in September according to a key survey, however, there are also emerging signs that a recent soft patch for the sector could be about to come to an end, which could potentially send alarm bells ringing at the Bank of England.

There was a small, albeit clear, rise in the value of the Pound against the Euro and Dollar following the announcement of a sizeable upgrade to the UK's PMIs for September, which suggests the economy did not fare as poorly as previously thought.

A Bank of America survey of UK consumers shows an uptick in confidence this September, amidst a steadying unemployment rate and expectations for improved personal finances.

The ONS upgraded its previous estimates for the growth in the UK economy following the introduction of more accurate measurements and revealed households saw an uptick in real disposable income.

A monthly survey of UK businesses reveals that firms continue to expect to raise prices and offer wage increases, evidence that domestic inflationary pressures will likely remain elevated.

Manufacturers reported that output volumes declined more quickly than expected in the three months to September, according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey.

The British Pound extended a multi-week decline after survey data revealed the UK economy saw a marked slowdown in September that exceeds anything seen since the Covid lockdown period.

The UK consumer hasn't been this confident in 20 months according to the latest GfK consumer confidence survey which surprisingly improved by 5 points to read at -21 in September.

Retail sales data showed volumes are estimated to have risen by 0.4% in August 2023, partially recovering from a fall of 1.1% in a weather-impacted July, but this was still below the analyst forecasts for growth of 0.5%, reinforcing a sense that the UK economy is stalling.

Can inflation continue to fall, in line with the Bank's own forecasts, and therefore ultimately justify growing expectations that the Bank is about to end the hiking cycle?

The British Pound fell against the Euro and Dollar following the release of inflation figures that notably undershot expectations and signalled the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates has receded notably.

The British Pound was under pressure in midweek trade following the release of data that showed an unexpectedly sharp decline in economic growth in July.

The British Pound moved higher against the Euro and Dollar after UK wage data came in stronger than expected, although signs of rising unemployment means the Bank of England might be able to pause its interest rate hike cycle in the final quarter of the year.

The demand for labour at UK businesses has fallen sharply in a signal the labour market is cooling, which should allow the Bank of England to press the pause button on its interest rates hiking campaign say economists.

Inflation expectations at UK businesses have turned meaningfully lower according to a regular survey conducted by the Bank of England and the University of Nottingham.

The Bank of England's inflation problem is not going to fade as fast as it hopes according to new data that reveals the UK labour market remains strong and consistent with churning out inflation levels above the Bank's own forecasts.