Dollar to Remain Supported says Barclays, Helped by Biggest Jump in Growth for World Economy since the 1970s

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The Dollar is being tipped to remain supported by foreign exchange analysts at Barclays who say the U.S. administration of Joe Biden will open the spending taps even wider over coming months.

Investor focus in the near-term is meanwhile expected to return back to the global growth story and away from rising bond yields now that the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting is in the rear-view mirror, a potentially supportive development for investors.

"With the Fed decision behind us, we think that market focus could shift from higher core rates to accelerating global growth," says a weekly foreign exchange briefing note from Barclays.

Barclays recently updated their U.S. growth forecast for 2021 from 6.4% to 6.7% y/y on the back of the passage of the $1.9trn fiscal stimulus package, which was larger than they had originally expected.

This expected demand boost will have positive spillover effects on the rest of the world, including on China, and Barclays now expect the world's second-largest economy to grow 9.4% y/y in 2021, as opposed to previous estimates of 8.4%.

"Such an expansion by the world’s two largest economies brings our aggregate global growth forecast to 6.4%, the fastest since the 1970s," says Barclays.

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Notably, Barclays assume the administration of President Joe Biden is not ready to turn off the fiscal taps as further stimulus measures are likely to be announced.

Barclays expect the U.S. government to now shift attention on an infrastructure stimulus package given the progress of U.S. vaccination efforts.

"In the US, more fiscal stimulus is in the pipeline," says Barclays. "We expect President Biden to outline his proposals in his first speech to a joint session of Congress – which may be in April – and target passing legislation later this year."

Analysts note that during his campaign Biden unveiled a sweeping set of proposals that would increase investments (at least $2trn over four years) in clean energy technologies and sustainable infrastructure.

Barclays estimate that a $2trn plan can raise the level of 10y yields by 30bp-50bp above their estimated fair level in a year’s time, currently at 1.75% (essentially close to spot).

The net result for foreign exchange markets is meanwhile expected to be one of further Dollar strength.

"The impact would depend not only on the size of the plan, but how accelerated it is and how the market expects the Fed to react to it. Persistently higher yields and brighter US growth prospects should bring support to the USD against non-commodity G10," says Barclays.

Elsewhere, fellow UK-domiciled bank Standard Chartered are also seeing the Dollar supported as U.S. economic growth outstrips growth in the rest of the world.

"The USD should get further support in the coming weeks from the widening growth differentials between the US and Europe, with the latter’s recovery prospects delayed by a revival of the pandemic in some countries and due to vaccine setbacks," says Rajat Bhattacharya, Senior Investment Strategist at Standard Chartered.

"The next focus for markets will be on Biden’s expected infrastructure spending plan, which the US president is likely to unveil in the coming days," he adds.