Time to Bet on the Australian Dollar says MUFG

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MUFG Bank says it is initiating a "long AUD/USD trade idea" based on "building investor optimism towards the growth outlook in China and globally" after recent policy changes in the U.S. and China.

The Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis point interest rate cut "has created more room for domestic policymakers to step up support for China’s economy" without significantly impacting the Chinese Yuan.

MUFG says China's "comprehensive package of support measures and strong commitment to do more if needed" can support confidence and is "a positive development for investor sentiment, and signals a stronger commitment to boost growth in China."

This improved sentiment towards China has already pushed AUD/USD above the "important resistance at around the 0.6900-level where highs from the last couple of years are located."

Strategists say a decisive break above this level could allow the pair to move towards the February 2022 high of 0.7158

While acknowledging "doubts remain over the sustainability of stronger growth in China," MUFG believes "the near-term impact should be supportive for commodity currencies such as the AUD which benefit from stronger demand in China."

Plans to increase fiscal spending or accelerate current plans "could reinforce the AUD’s current upward momentum in the coming weeks."

The main downside risk to betting on a stronger Aussie Dollar in the week ahead would be the release of a much stronger US labour market report that challenges market expectations for faster Fed rate cuts, according to MUFG.