Australian Dollar Forecast to Fall Further Against Pound Sterling and Other Majors

A number of analysts we follow are currently forecasting that this could indeed be the case with the Aussie dollar said to be at risk of further declines owing to a slowing China and risks to the Australian financial system.

"The AUD also looks more vulnerable from a valuation perspective, and in spite of slightly better Chinese data yesterday, concerns about the slowdown in China and lower iron ore prices also continue to weigh on the AUD," say Lloyds Bank research in a currency note to clients.

For reference, at the time of our last update the following Aus dollar forex rates are noted:

• At the current time we see the pound to Australian dollar (GBP/AUD) is 0.33 pct lower on a day-to-day basis; the conversion rate is at 1.8506.
• The Australian dollar to US dollar exchange rate (AUD/USD) is 0.08 pct lower; the conversion rate is at 0.8781.
• The euro to Aus dollar exchange rate (EUR/AUD) is 0.32 pct lower; the conversion rate is at 1.4464.

Be aware: All forex quotes here are taken from the wholesale spot markets; your bank will levy a spread at their discretion. However, an independent FX specialist will undercut your bank's offer, delivering up to 5% more currency in some instances. Learn more. Also ensure your FX provider has the relevant buy orders set so when your rate is reached you do not miss out.

Central Banks Hit Aus and NZ Dollars

The immediate downside pressure we are witnessing on the AUD and NZD comes courtesy of their respective central banks.

RBNZ governor Graeme Wheeler warned the level of the exchange rate for the New Zealand dollar was "unjustified and unsustainable". The sudden slump in the NZD following the comments saw the AUD crash half a cent.

Also adding to woes was a negative sounding RBA Governor Stevens who warned on the risks facing the Australian financial system and consumer.

“The RBA’s assessment is that the risk from the current strength in housing markets is more likely to be to future household spending than to lenders’ balance sheets,” Stevens said.

“However, the direct risks to banks will rise if current rates of growth in investor lending and housing prices persist, or increase further.”

Citibank Forecasting Gains for GBP/AUD

Analysts at Citibank tell us they are forecasting further declines in the Aussie against sterling:

"GBP outperformance should extend. Political uncertainty has subsided since the Scottish referendum, which should see increased market focus on strength in underlying data flow in the UK and potential BoE hawkishness.

"We believe investors do not discount sufficient risk for an early rate hike next year, suggesting there should be scope for GBP-positive rises in interest rate expectations."

Furtheremore, "trading a basket of GBPAUD and GBPJPY may be more attractive than outright long GBPAUD, since it should help to mitigate potential downside if our expectation for a less benign asset market/risk environment proves unfounded."

Australian vs US dollar: AUD at Risk of Declines

Citigroup tell us the AUD should be increasingly vulnerable to USD appreciation.

"The increased breadth of USD appreciation in recent weeks has been associated with pressure on Asian currencies, which threatens reduced reserves accumulation moving forward. As reserves recycling into AUD moves offline, there may be little to offset the impact of broad USD gains. With the next phase of USD appreciation likely to be more about higher volatility and risk reduction as opposed to policy divergence, we favour AUD shorts," say Citibank in a note to clients.

Meanwhile, Karen Jones at Commerzbank reckons consolidation is the most likely outcome for the Aussie dollar in the immediate-term:

"AUD/USD has sold off towards its next support zone offered by the .8840/78.6% retracement of the move seen this year, it has traded through this point but not closed below it and it is possible that we will see some consolidation here.

"It is regarded as the break down point to .8660 this years low. Note the Elliott wave count on the daily is suggesting a retracement into the .8980/.9060 band.

"Shorts from .9080 exited at .8909 Recommended Trade: Attempt tiny longs at market – stop .8830 (risky trade but think may get a small squeeze). Exit .8960."