Aus Dollar FORECAST 2014: AUD Exchange Rate Plagued by Uncertainty Warn Scotiabank
- Written by: Will Peters
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Nevertheless, the 2014 declines in the pound to Aus dollar exchange rate confirm an upward move is not a sure bet at this stage. The following rates observed on Wednesday:
- The British pound to Australian dollar exchange rate trading 0.05 pct lower at 1.7874.
- The euro Australian dollar is 0.16 pct lower at 1.4435.
- The Australian to US dollar rate is 0.08 pct higher at 0.9381.
Beware, the above mid-market rates will attract a discretionary spread from your bank or FX provider. An independent provider will guarantee to undercut your bank's offer, thereby delivering up to 5% more currency. Please learn more here.
Scotiabank 2014 forecasts for the Australian dollar complex: Not so strong
We have seen decent gains being put in by the AUD thus far in June, the question is whether or not these advances can be maintained. We have pored over the June exchange rate forecast from Scotiabank and see the currency should maintain an air of resillience.
Lead FX analyst at Scotiabank, Camilla Sutton, tells us:
"The AUD was range-bound in May as a heightened focus on Australia’s credit rating, less supportive yield spreads, and a deteriorated outlook for commodities with iron ore prices breaking $100/t were offset by an improvement in employment, an RBA that has eased up on its currency rhetoric and positive flows and building bullish sentiment (the CFTC reported a $1.8bn net long position as of late May).
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"We expect the AUD to continue to be plagued by a mixed outlook, leaving the currency range-bound. We hold a year-end target of 0.92."
Monetary conditions in Australia are set to remain accommodative in the coming months with the benchmark cash target rate likely to be kept unchanged at 2.50%.
We don't forecast any major upmoves in the AUD until the RBA begins pointing to interest rate rises which will further strengthen the country's yield advantage over rivals.
Indeed, the Reserve Bank of Australia considers the current policy stance to be appropriate for fostering sustainable output growth and keeping inflation consistent with the 2-3% target.
Australian economy remains buoyant
But, will the RBA have to become more bullish? If the current trajectory in the economy remains in place then ultimately they may have to.
Consumer price inflation has continued to pick up gradually; price gains reached 2.9% y/y in the first quarter of 2014 compared with a 2.7% advance at the end of 2013.
"We expect the headline rate to close the year near the current level. Solid economic momentum in Australia is underpinned by rising exports that reflect increased mining capacity following investment project completions. Indeed, exports rose by close to 17% y/y (in Australian dollar terms) in the first quarter of the year," says Sutton.
Simultaneously, mining investment has surpassed its peak while public spending remains muted.
An improving housing market (house prices were up by 10.9% y/y in the first quarter) has translated into a pick-up in dwelling investment.
"This will likely have a favourable impact on consumer confidence and household spending. The Australian labour market has shown signs of modest improvement though demand for labour remains soft for the time being. The unemployment rate remained at 5.8% in April. We expect Australia’s realm GDP growth to average 2.8% in 2014-15," says Sutton.
