SA Rand Forecasts: Pound Sterling to Make More Gains in 2015
- Written by: Gary Howes
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The British pound to South African Rand exchange rate (GBP/ZAR) is forecast to resume its longer-term uptrend in 2015 by analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research.
The GBP/ZAR has been in an uptrend since 2011, rising from a starting point of 11.00 GBP/ZAR.
However, 2014 has seen the move higher come to a halt as historical resistance levels are met. The pair has been tracking sideways for much of the year in a neatly defined range:
Note: The quotes represented in the above image, and elsewhere in this article, are taken from the wholesale markets. Your bank will affix a spread to the market rate at their discretion. However, an independent FX provider will seek to undercut your bank's offer, thereby delivering up to 5% more currency in some instances.
Time for the Pound Sterling's Uptrend to Restart?
Despite the GBP to ZAR having stalled over recent months, we hear "the uptrend is set to resume," in the opinion of MacNeil Curry, technical strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch.
As such Curry has suggested that his clients position themselves for further gains accordingly:
"After nine months of range trading the long term £/ZAR bullt-rend appears set to resume.
"Today’s Bullish Engulfing Candle from Triangle support (now 17.3365) points to a test of Triangle resistance at 18.3303/18.4015. However, this should only be a temporary stopping point ahead of 19.7970 (Triangle Objective).
Indeed, given the proximity to the long term highs of 2008 and 2001, a break of these highs could result in even greater topside than what the Triangle suggests. Back below the Sep-09 low at 17.3068 invalidates the bullish potential.
"Buy £/ZAR at market (now 17.6275), risk 17.3065, target 18.4015 ahead of 19.7970 and potentially beyond."
Dollar Strengthens, Hurting Commodity Currencies
Another factor to watch out for concerning the Rand is the strength of the US dollar.
The strengthening dollar tends to place downward pressure on commodity prices, and as a large commodity exporter the South African economy typically loses.
It should be no surprise today then to see the ZAR complex under-performing as the USD rallies.
Joe Manimbo at Western Union tells us why the USD is in demand:
"The dollar remained a ‘buy on the dip’ as its mostly down session Tuesday gave way to renewed demand today.
"It also helped that the greenback picked up additional positives in the decisive outcome for U.S. midterm elections that have markets hoping for a reduction in political gridlock on Capitol Hill, and another positive reading on the U.S. labor market.
"ADP reported that private jobs increased 230,000 for October, while September got upgraded to 225,000 from an initial print of 213,000. ADP can sometimes set the tone for nonfarm payrolls so by faring better it can diminish the likelihood of disappointment on Friday.
"Forecasts call for a gain of 231,000 nonfarm payrolls in October and for unemployment to stay below 6 percent."
