EUR/USD Rate at Parity: Odds Rising say Two Analysts

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The Euro to Dollar exchange rate's decline could see it approach, or achieve 1:1, say two analysts we follow.

Viraj Patel, strategist at Arkera, says he thinks the exchange rate is course to get "pretty close" to the psychologically important level of parity.

One reason why this level is achievable is because sentiment for such a move is not crowded, he notes.

"No FX forecaster on Bloomberg sees EUR below $1.04 by year-end. Europe's energy shock will see multi-decade EUR lows tested," says Patel. (Set your FX rate alert here).

The Eurozone energy shock has grown more acute over recent hours on news Russia has suspended gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria.

The reason cited by Russia was a failure by the two countries to comply with their request for gas to be paid in Rubles.

Poland says it was prepared for this eventuality, but it does indicate Russia is increasingly willing to weaponise their energy exports.

The Euro-Dollar exchange rate has fallen from highs near 1.15 ahead of the outbreak of war in February to 1.0597 today, with analysts saying the war poses significant threats to Eurozone and EU growth.

Not least via the energy channel.

Jeremy Boulton, a Reuters market analyst, says the chance EUR/USD drops to below parity is now greater than was the case during the Eurozone debt crisis of the early 2010s.

"Demand for dollars resulting from a significant tightening in U.S. monetary policy is likely to fuel a bigger drop than in 2015 when a bet on the end of the single currency led traders to a record short position and the pair fell to 1.0457," says Boulton.

Like Patel, the analyst notes current betting shows traders "gambling on a rise" - confirming a view that a fall to parity is not a crowded one.

When positioning becomes crowded it actually acts as a headwind to the move, but when the market is relatively uncrowded the 'clear air' ahead allows for the trend to extend.

"In 2015 ECB polices were designed to save the euro. Current policies are weighing upon it and there is a likelihood of greater divergence with the Federal Reserve not only set to raise rates in a big way but also reduce the balance sheet. This could drive EUR/USD much lower," says Boulton.

Kit Juckes at Société Générale says it is too soon to buy the Euro.

"Were it not for the war, I'd be keen on buying this euro dip," says Juckes, "but as it is, there is more downside and positioning provides no support."

He says the war in Ukraine seems more likely to drag on than end soon, and as well as the human suffering that implies, further tension between Russia and the west seems inevitable.

Furthermore Juckes says markets are expecting too much from the European Central Bank by way of interest rate hikes this year: some 75 basis points of hikes are expected.

He describes this as "implausible".

"The economic threat from the conflict is simply too great to buy dips yet," he adds.

(Set your FX rate alert here).