Sell Euro-to-Dollar Rate says MUFG, Citing EU's Latest Vaccine Troubles

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• EUR/USD spot at publication: 1.1919
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Foreign exchange strategists at international investment bank MUFG say there is potential value in selling the Euro and buying Dollars this week, citing a combination of divergent central bank policy and deepening vaccination woes in the Eurozone as influencing the call.

The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) slipped below the psychologically significant level of 1.20 in the first week of March, going to as low as 1.1835 before a recovery last week saw the pair settle in the 1.19-1.1950 region.

The failure to advance above the 1.2000 level last week "signals scope for a further move to the downside for EUR/USD," says Derek Halpenny, Head of Research at MUFG in London.

A key event for the Euro - in the form of last week's European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting - meanwhile offered little support, which according to MUFG is testament to effective guidance from ECB President Christine Lagarde and her team.

By successfully keeping a lid on the yield paid by Eurozone bonds, Lagarde denied the Euro a potential source of support.

Indeed, how the Euro-Dollar trades this week could come down to how the U.S. central bank behaves and whether they can emulate the ECB's messaging.

"There is a greater risk we believe that Fed Chair Powell’s efforts to emphasise the Fed’s commitment to loose monetary policy is not as convincing which may see the US dollar advance further over the short-term," says Halpenny.

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MUFG are looking for U.S. fixed income markets to push U.S. treasury bond yields higher and they anticipate a break to new highs on the 10-year yield.

Such a move is anticipated to weigh mostly on the low-yielding G10 currencies like JPY, EUR, CHF and SEK.

Another potential source of weakness for the Euro exchange rate complex is the Eurozone's poor effort at rolling out vaccines.

A slew of countries have now banned the distribution of the AstraZeneca vaccine over concerns that it causes blood clots, despite the bloc's regulator the European Medicines Agency saying there is no causal link between the vaccine and blood clots.

This view is backed by AstraZeneca itself as well as Public Health England, which has the most comprehensive data set pertaining to AstraZeneca vaccinations.

"The suspension in certain countries in Europe of using the Astra Zeneca vaccine will inevitably have consequences for speeding up the vaccination roll-out which will see investors push back the timing and extent of euro-zone economic recovery," says Halpenny.

"Cyclically, over the short-term at least, the US looks a lot more compelling which signals downside risks for now," he adds.

MUFG are targeting a decline in Euro-Dollar to 1.17.