Danske Bank Lower Euro / Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
- Written by: Gary Howes
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Image © European Central Bank
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Nordic lender and investment bank Danske have lowered their Euro to Dollar exchange rate forecast.
"The hawkish stance from the Fed continues to support our expectation of a stronger dollar," says Jens Nærvig Pedersen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank.
In their latest Market Guide update Danske Bank are clear that further downside in then Euro-Dollar exchange rate is largely tied to expectations for Dollar strength, and only a substantive rebound in global economic growth would offer the Euro upside.
The call comes as the Euro-Dollar trends lower and threatens to print a new one-year low at 1.1557.
Danske Bank's Euro-Dollar forecast shift comes in response to slowing global growth trends; although the Eurozone and U.S. economies continue to grow the easy gains have been made.
A slowing growth environment - which has roots in China - is anticipated to be one that favours further Dollar advances.
Despite the slowdown Danske Bank reckon the U.S. Federal Reserve will commence tapering its asset purchase programme in the final quarter of 2021.
"This will continue to shift the market's attention towards USD on a theme of monetary divergence vis-à-vis EU," says Pedersen.
"As a reflection of broader market themes increasingly turning pro-dollar with global liquidity conditions tightening, PMIs set to move lower and central banks facing rising inflation concerns we lower our profile for EUR/USD," he adds.
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Danske Bank lower their EUR/USD forecast to 1.10 in twelve months (from 1.13).
Upside risks to this view include EUR/USD going back above 1.20 should global inflation pressures fade.
Another risk to their view is a pivot from Fed whereby they step back from their intent to end quantitive easing and raise interest rates, potentially in response to a slower than expected U.S. recovery.
A further potential boost to the Euro could come in the form of a renewed surge in global industry "which could underpin a new leg higher for global reflation assets," says Pedersen.
