Canadian Dollar: CAD Dominated by USD on Exchange Rate Markets, Further Declines Predicted

The CAD alongside other commodity currencies such as the AUD and NZD is suffering mid-week after it was shown the US economy is expanding at a greater-than-expected pace.

Gross Domestic Product (Q2) came in at 4%, well ahead of the expectation for a reading of 3%. Bets are now on that the US Fed will bring forward their timeframe for raising rates - this eats into the relative rate yield advantage currently enjoyed by Canada.

At the time of writing the following Canadian dollar exchange rates are available:

• The British pound to Canadian dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) is 0.24 pct higher on a daily basis at 1.8434.
• The euro to Canadian dollar rate (EUR/CAD) is 0.23 pct higher at 1.4588.
• The US dollar to Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) is 0.47 pct higher at 1.0094.

Please note that retail currecy rates are subject to substantial spreads when delivered by your bank. An independent FX provider can deliver up to 5% more currency in some cases by getting closer to the market rate, please learn more here.

Canadian dollar predictions for the near-term

The CAD bull's positions are becoming undone at the present time mostly on the back of algorithmic traders unwinding their cumulative short USD/CAD positions suggest Oanda in a client note.

"That they started selling on a break of $1.09 and have been adding to sub $1.08 and even $1.07. The technical oversold alarms began to ring below $1.07 and the recent dollar squeezer higher this week has persuaded the algos to cover," say Oanda.

The Canadian dollar ended what was a geopolitically-charged week pushing through the previous CAD monthly lows (dollar highs - $1.0785).

Regarding the technical forecast for the USD to CAD, Oanda say:

"The dollar has it sights trained on key secondary resistance levels beyond the psychological $1.08 handle ($1.0825 & $1.0850). Ever since the market breached key support levels on the Euro/North America handover, and combined with market liquidity constraints, it has been easy to sway the current unsupportive market heading into the weekend. The market is positioning itself for a busy U.S economic calendar this week. The loonie has little support from the Canadian economic agenda until the end of the month when we get GDP data for May - the loonie remains at the mercy of the dollars moves."

Also coming from a technical perspective, Swissquote Research tell us:

"The broad based USD appetite sent USD/CAD above 1.0821 last Friday. The pair consolidates gains in the bullish consolidation zone, above 1.0800. Bids build up at 1.0789/1.0800 (50-dma / optionality). The key resistance stands at 200-dma (1.0832)."

Technical predictions: Pound to Canadian Dollar

Regarding near- and longer-term predictions for the GBP/CAD Shaun Osborne at TD Securities says:

"GBPCAD staged a minor rally from the 1.8250 area yesterday but it was enough on the short-term (6-hour) chart to put in a minor low (bull “hammer” signal) which has lifted the cross back to and a little though (at writing) the 40-day MA. Above short-term trend resistance and the 40-day MA suggests the GBP is liable to strengthen a little more near-term at least.

"But the broader, sideways range trade in place here in the past few months and the dearth of momentum overall leaves us struggling to get too excited about the move up. The cross remains in a range."

Euro to CAD predictions

Concerning the euro to pound exchange rate, Osborne says:

"Short-term price action signaled that the trend slide in EURCAD had stalled in the low/mid 1.44 area but it is not yet clear that the cross can rally significantly in a broader sense.
Short-term price signals remain positive today but the market may be consolidating ahead of another push lower, rather than developing a base from which it can rebound.

"We have been targeting a drop to the mid 1.44s since early May so we are more neutral here directionally and await clearer signals on direction. Above 1.4600/50 favours bounce to
1.47/1.49. Below 1.4375 suggests more weakness."