Australian Dollar: The Wind Direction Changes
- Written by: Gary Howes
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Image © Adobe Images
For the Australian Dollar, Trump's victory could be changing from a tailwind to a headwind.
AUD exchange rates are broadly lower following the appointment by Donald Trump of known China 'hawks' to some key positions.
The appointment of Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz as Secretary of State and National Security Adviser, respectively, sends a clear message that Trump intends to follow through with plans to restrict trade with China.
This represents a negative development for Chinese proxies, such as the Australian dollar.
"Concerns over trade issues between Washington and Beijing are likely to keep the AUD on offer as well," says Roberto Mialich, FX Strategist at UniCredit Bank.
Numerous analysts said the Australian Dollar would be one a potential victim of a Trump victory, but the currency shot higher and outperformed expectations last week following news Trump had won.
This surprising price action came as AUD's traditional high beta saw it catch a ride on the significant stock market rally that followed the news.
But, AUD bulls now face the prospect of a shift in focus for markets on the reality that China is facing up to significant headwinds.
"Finally, the move in AUD is starting to make a little sense. While the AUDUSD is still above the lows seen last Wednesday and provided that you were able to navigate the 2.7% rally, at least it is heading in the direction that one would have expected post-Trump election victory," says a note from JP Morgan's FX trading desk.
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Trump said he will impose a 60% import tariff on Chinese imports if he wins. Some economists speculate that Trump won't be so tough, instead opting to negotiate and ultimately enacting weaker tariffs.
But, by picking China 'hawks' such as Rubio and Waltz, a rethink might be required.
"As Trump lines up China hawks Rubio and Waltz for posts in his new administration, AUD looks set to continue lower," adds JP Morgan.
Rubio is a long-time China atagonist and will be the first sitting Secretary of State who is under Chinese sanctions.
"Trump is set to pick two men with track records of harshly criticising China for key posts in his new administration, adding to investor concerns that relations between the two countries will deteriorate further in the coming years," says Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Bank.
