New Zealand Dollar Tracks Stocks Higher in Wake of Trump Win

Above: Vice President-elect Vance and President-elect Trump address supporters after it was confirmed their ticket had won enough Electoral College votes to take them to the White House.

The NZ Dollar is outperforming most of its peers after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election.

Investors are in risk-taking mode following confirmation that Donald Trump has won the race for the White House, with his Republican Party gaining control of the Senate and likely retaining the House of Representatives.

Investors are welcoming the certainty that a clear-cut election brings while also considering Trump's pro-growth agenda.

"His catchphrase of 'Trump will fix it' evokes market excitement about his potential policy changes," says Selena Ling, Head of Research and Strategy at OCBC in Singapore.

Positive investor sentiment is lifting 'high beta' assets, including the New Zealand Dollar: the GBP/NZD exchange rate is half a percent lower at 2.1611, and the EUR/NZD is a percent lower at 1.8016.

The Kiwi's loss against the surging U.S. Dollar, at 0.66%, is relatively contained compared to its peers, taking NZD/USD to 0.5967.

Numerous currency analysts we follow went into the election anticipating a Trump win as being a negative for the AUD and NZD currencies as Trump has indicated he will reset trade relations with China, headlining a 60% import tariff on all Chinese goods.

This poses another headwind to China's economy, to which New Zealand is particularly exposed, as is Australia.

"US-China relations are already frosty, and trade tariffs (if implemented) may exacerbate the situation. However, Trump is also a negotiator and may be inclined to cut a deal if he gets what he wants. Hence, the question is whether there will be a deal," says Ling.

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A wait-and-see approach and hope that Trump might not be as harsh as initially feared could buy the antipodean currencies some time and allow them to hitch a ride on the coattails of the global equity rally.

"While the market is familiar with the broad outline of a Trump presidency, a huge amount of uncertainty remains on the size and extent of his policies," says Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank.

However, those with an interest in New Zealand Dollar currency transactions should be aware of the overarching risk to the currency posed by Trump via potential tensions with China over trade.

As such, the current strength could prove short-lived.

We would not be surprised to see the Kiwi and Aussie prove sensitive to any headlines relating to China that might emerge in the coming days as Trump starts to outline his agenda.