Pound Sterling Has More Time in the Sun, Says Goldman Sachs

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Goldman Sachs says a faster pace of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England won't sink the Pound as the global equity backdrop will remain supportive.

"More time in the sun," says a note on the GBP outlook from the bank's currency research team, released Monday.

The call comes after Goldman's economists last week changed their forecasts for Bank of England rate cuts, saying the central bank would ramp up the pace it cuts from quarterly to sequentially (i.e. every meeting) in 2025.

"We now expect the Bank of England to move to consecutive cuts starting at the November MPC meeting; we have left the terminal rate unchanged at 3%, below market pricing," says Sven Jari Stehn, an economist at Goldman Sachs in London.

The Pound has benefited from the UK's relatively high interest rates relative to elsewhere, meaning expectations for an accelerated rate cutting cycle potentially posed downside risks to the currency.

But the FX research team at Goldman Sachs says Bank of England policy "is increasingly looking like a hawkish outlier (alongside the ECB). This has left market pricing of further easing relatively light compared to the Fed and most other major economies in cutting cycles, explaining some of its resilience against other high-beta currencies over recent weeks as equities have been challenged."

Analysts say a benign outlook on risk and global factors underpin their constructive view on Pound Sterling, as much as domestic factors.

"One could argue that little BoE easing priced into markets leaves GBP vulnerable, especially since CFTC data suggest investors are already bullish, but we think the currency should still benefit from a coordinated easing cycle where the US avoids recession, and particularly like being long on crosses (e.g., vs CHF)," says a note, released Monday.

The Pound has proven itself highly sensitive to global sentiment, falling sharply in early August amidst a global equity market wobble. The recovery in stocks has subsequently helped the Pound recover these earlier losses and analysts at Goldman Sachs say further gains for equity markets will support Sterling.

Goldman Sachs' research shows the Pound tends to strengthen in periods of low volatility, characterised by declining bond yields and rising equities.

Analysts say volatility can increase in the coming months, "especially as we head into the US election" but Goldmans' macro economic forecasts call for a generally supportive backdrop for risk despite some reversal in yields.

"Additionally, UK equities have been more insulated in recent periods of risk-off, which is one of the reasons our portfolio strategists have turned bullish and are looking for additional inflows," say analysts.