What does the EUR/USD chart say ahead of the ECB decision?
- Written by: Karen Jones, Society of Technical Analysts
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© European Union, reproduced under CC licensing
Today we get the ECB decision, and another 75bps hike is expected…. so, what are the charts saying ahead of this?
EUR/USD has already broken above its 2022 downtrend and back above parity and did so with a decent rally.
So, this raises the question of how far is the market likely to correct?
We have the 12 th September high at 1.0198, but the area on the chart where the resistance starts to intensify is at 1.0349/69, the May and June lows and the August peak.
Also, in this vicinity lies the 38.2% retracement at 1.0283 (of the move down from the February peak).
If we treat the recent consolidation between the .9535 low and 1.00 as a symmetrical triangle and measure that higher, it also gives a potential 1.0400 target, but for now we will stick with the 1.0349/69 band as this was also the 2016 low and represents a strong convergence of resistance.
Above: EUR/USD shown at daily intervals with Society of Technical Analysts annotations and indicators.
I tend to leave broken trendlines on the chart, as these should now act as support on any pullbacks, the previous downtrend now lies at .9930. The 55-day moving average lies at .9916 and should add support to this area.
It is also nice to see a confirming break higher by GBP/USD through its 55-day ma at 1.1443, which opens the way to the 1.1760 July low and above here we have a couple of Fibonacci retracements coming in at 1.2050/75 (50% of the move from January 2022 to September 2022).
Above: GBP/USD shown at daily intervals with Society of Technical Analysts annotations and indicators.
USD/JPY is also easing back having charted a huge key day reversal from 151.94. It has 140.35 as initial support (22 nd September low) but the stronger band of support starts to kick in at the 139.34 July high and the 137.76 38.2% retracement of the move up from March.
This band coincides with the base of its cloud at 138.15 and we would be looking to take profits ahead of here.
Above: USD/JPY shown at daily intervals with Society of Technical Analysts annotations and indicators.
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