Euro-Dollar Rebound Yet to Convince: XM.com

"Euro-dollar is likely to come under selling interest if U.S. data revive Fed hike expectations, but the pair’s fate will not only depend on the U.S. data," says Charalampos Pissouros, Senior Investment Analyst at XM.com.

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The U.S. dollar tumbled against all the other major currencies on Tuesday and Treasury yields extended their retreat after data showed that job openings in the US fell in July and that consumer sentiment deteriorated during August.

U.S. job openings dropped to the lowest level since March 2021 and entered the basket of data highlighting the slowdown in the US jobs market.

At the same time, the Conference Board consumer confidence index slid as well, suggesting that consumers are becoming more cautious, which bodes well for the Fed’s efforts to bring inflation to heel.

The data prompted investors to have second thoughts on whether another hike by the Fed is appropriate and this is evident by the lowering of the market’s implied rate path.

The probability of another quarter-point increase by November has slid to around 50% from 65%, while the basis points worth of rate reductions anticipated for next year have increased to 100 from around 90.

Above: The Euro to Dollar exchange rate at daily intervals.

As investors are trying to figure out how the Fed’s plans may evolve in the coming months, they may pay extra attention to today’s ADP employment report for August and the second estimate of the US GDP for Q2, ahead of tomorrow’s core PCE index for July and the official employment report for August on Friday.

Although the GDP data is forecast to confirm that the economy grew 2.4% qoq SAAR in Q2, the ADP report is expected to reveal that the private sector gained significantly less jobs than in July, adding to the latest evidence of a weakening labour market.

That said, despite the softening, yesterday’s job openings report pointed to still tight labour market conditions, with 1.51 vacancies for every unemployed person, slightly below June’s 1.54, but well above the 1.0-1.2 range that is considered consistent with a labour market that is not generating too much inflation.

On top of that, tomorrow, the core PCE index is forecast to have ticked up, and on Friday, even though nonfarm payrolls are forecast to have further slowed, wage growth is estimated to have remained elevated.

Therefore, anything adding to the risk of stickier price pressures in the months to come may prompt market participants to consider again the likelihood of another hike by the Fed, which could allow U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar to rebound.

Euro-dollar is likely to come under selling interest if U.S. data revive Fed hike expectations, but the pair’s fate will not only depend on the U.S. data.

With investors split on whether the ECB should hike again in September, Eurozone’s preliminary inflation numbers for August, due out on Thursday, may attract special attention.

Combined with a set of PMIs that rang the recession alarm bells, a slowdown in inflation could tilt the scale towards a September pause. The opposite may be true in case the data points to a small rebound.

Today, traders will have the opportunity to get a first taste of where inflation in the Euro area may be headed as the German CPI numbers are on the schedule. Therefore, euro traders may start adjusting their bets and positions as soon as today.