Euro-Dollar: 1.1275 "Unlikely to Come Back into View in the Next Month" says UOB
- Written by: Gary Howes
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Analysts are scouring the charts for clues as to what the European Central Bank's most recent guidance and decision means for the Euro's outlook against the Dollar.
The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EURUSD) suffered a significant technical setback after it fell 1.0% on the day the ECB hiked the deposit rate to a record high but signalled this was likely the peak for interest rates.
"The mid-July high of 1.1275 could be a top for now, and this level is unlikely to come back into view in the next month or so," says Quek Ser Leang, Markets Strategist at United Overseas Bank in Singapore.
The exchange rate closed the day at 1.0975, having been as high as 1.1150 ahead of the ECB's decision.
Euro-Dollar had touched a high of 1.1275 in mid-July but has since pulled back sharply. Leang's studies reveal it has now dropped slightly below a key trendline:
Another trendline at 1.0865 is also close to the 55-day exponential moving average).
"While it is premature to expect a major bearish reversal, the break of the trendline and the 55-day exponential moving average indicates that the 1.1275 high could be a top for now. In other words, 1.1275 is unlikely to come back into view in the next month or so," says Leang.
He does however add that the pace of any decline is likely to be slow as there are several significant support levels that are relatively close to each other.
On the weekly chart, support is provided by the rising trendline connecting the lows of September last year and May this year is at 1.0880.
"This level is also close to the 21-week exponential moving average. On the daily chart, the top of the daily Ichimoku cloud support is at 1.0865 now. This level is not far above the early July low of 1.0832. Further down, the 55-week exponential moving average is currently at 1.0770," says Leang.
The studies suggest that while the top for EURUSD might be in the pace of any further decline could be slower from here owing to the complex webs of technical support lying close by.
