Euro-Dollar Forecast to Peak Just North of 1.23 by Credit Suisse
- Written by: Gary Howes
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Foreign exchange strategists at Credit Suisse say the Euro is unlikely to travel beyond 1.23 over coming weeks as the European Central Bank's June meeting will likely disappoint buyers.
The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) was unable to break the ceiling at 1.2250 in May, but with technical indicators confirming momentum largely remains positive the market could yet make another attempt at breaking this level.
But it would appear that any technical break will require either a major renewal of U.S. Dollar weakness or the European Central Bank (ECB) to strike a 'hawkish' note at the June policy event.
The June policy meeting could prove to be a watershed moment for the Euro if the ECB opts to signal it is now ready to tighten monetary policy and start the glacial exit from its extraordinary support programme.
More specifically, this tightening would come in the form of a commitment to reduce the scale of its asset purchase programme (quantitative easing) on the view that the economic outlook has greatly improved and Eurozone inflation is on the rise.
The rule of thumb is that such a move would prove supportive of the Euro.
Economists at Credit Suisse have released a note saying they expect the ECB to announce a taper of its quantitative easing programme from €80BN per month to €60BN.
This they say would reflect better macro conditions and will mean they can avoid increasing the overall size of the current programme.
But, Credit Suisse's foreign exchange strategy team beg to differ with their colleagues in the economic research department.
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They say such a hawkish ECB view could lead EUR/USD "storming past our near-term target at 2021 highs around 1.2350 to test levels around 1.2500 and above last seen in 2018."
"This might not be a great look if it results in inflation expectations falling materially once more, especially with the ECB’s strategic review results due later this year," says Shahab Jalinoos, Global Head of FX Strategy at Credit Suisse.
A rise in the Euro's value is considered to be a deflationary force for the Eurozone as it lowers the cost of imports and reduces earnings for the region's exporters.
Given the ECB's multi-year failure to get inflation back to the 2.0% mark on a sustainable basis it is no surprise that a stronger Euro is not welcome.
Jalinoos and his colleagues retain a forecast that EUR/USD should peak around 1.2350 this month.
They do however acknowledge that, "barring major US upside data surprises or a radical shift in tone from the Fed, there are clearly upside risks to consider if the ECB plays its hand poorly and / or our economists’ hawkish stance proves correct."
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