Exchange Rate Predictions: Pound Sterling, Euro, US dollar, Australian dollar

Pound to dollar predictions

This exchange rate pair has seen a recent poor run come to an end. The question now though is one of whether we have seen enough of a recovery to justify calling the return positive pro-GBP momentum.

UBS are still neutral on Cable:

"Important support at 1.6470 was tested earlier this week and prompted a bounce which is now approaching resistance at 1.6599. A break above this would open the way to 1.6684."

Sean Lee at FXWW is looking to buy GBP-USD:

"The range edges are pretty well defined at 1.6470 and 1.6650. I fancy a topside test next, especially with EUR/GBP turning bearish again, so I’m looking to buy intraday dips to 1.6540 with a 100 pip topside target."

Luc Luyet at MIG Bank says the bounce higher in GBP-USD was predictable to an extent:

"GBP/USD has bounced near the support implied by its rising channel. The hourly resistance given by 1.6568 (see also the declining channel) has been broken. Hourly resistances can now be found at 1.6599 (38.2% retracement) and 1.6666. Supports stand at 1.6460 and 1.6252 (05/02/2014 low). 

"In the longer term, a break to the downside out of the rising channel would negate the current bullish bias implied by the break of the resistance at 1.6668 (24/01/2014 high). A strong horizontal support stands at 1.6220 (17/12/2013 low)."

Euro to pound predictions

UBS are yet to be convinced the current pullback negates the pro-EUR story saying:

"With bullish trend in place, there’s scope for extension of the strength to 0.8405, a break above this would open the way to 0.8467. Support is at
0.8308 ahead of 0.8250."

MIG Bank are however warning of further declines now that a key support level has given way:

"EUR/GBP has broken the support at 0.8321, confirming a lack of buying interest to push prices substantially higher. A test of the support at 0.8263 (see also the rising trendline) is now favoured. Hourly resistances can be found at 0.8330 (intraday high) and 0.8367 (intraday high).
 
"In the longer term, the breakout of the resistance at 0.8350 (13/01/2014 high) favours a base formation with an implied upside potential at 0.8532. Key resistances stand at 0.8464 (13/11/2013 high) and 0.8585 (29/10/2014 high)."

Australian dollar predictions

The Aus dollar has turned bullish of late and gains in the headline AUD-USD  pair:

"With bullish conditions intact, there’s potential for more upside to test the critical resistance at 0.9339. Support is at 0.9120."

Luyet notes that now AUD-USD has broken resistance, further gains lie ahead:

"AUD/USD has broken the key resistance at 0.9168, validating a 3 month bullish reversal pattern. Other resistances stand at 0.9281 and 0.9448. Hourly supports can be found at 0.9154 (26/03/2014) and 0.9120 (25/03/2014 low).

"In the longer term, a decisive break of the strong resistance at 0.9168 (02/12/2013 high, see also the 200 day moving average) would favour a further rise towards the key resistance at 0.9448.