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British Pound vs EUR, AUD, USD Exchange Rate Forecasts For the Near-Term

By Rob Samson

We bring a selection of today's exchange rate forecasts that sees an attractive looking GBP-USD and a consolidating EUR-USD.

Pound dollar exchange rate forecast

  • Monday Update:

OCBC Bank have suggested the GBP is at risk of further declines vs the USD. In today's currency outlook note the bank's Emmanuel Ng says:

"With the GBP losing its data-driven luster in recent sessions and implied long GBP positioning at elevated levels, the pound may be relatively more susceptible to any near term episodes of broad-based dollar strength. We look to a tactical short GBP-USD (spot ref: 1.6490) targeting 1.6230, with a stop placed at 1.6625."

  • UniCredit Bank:

Sterling has surely suffered from the latest wave of USD buying, but given prospects of firmer UK growth and our  expectations of a BoE rate hike later this year, investors may start viewing cable below 1.65 as attractive and also consider buying sterling vs. some other FX majors.

  • This note from Sean Lee at FXWW on the dynamics behind the GBP-USD:

"Cable hit into some bids at 1.6475 (also Fib support), but continues to looking weak and techs are indicating further losses

"Dealers note not much on the order books until 1.6425 (near the 100 daily MA)

"To the topside, Asian offers lined up at 1.6520; then next resistance 1.6545/50 area

"No data releases out of the UK today; focus will be on flows/techs."

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Euro dollar forecast for today

  • UniCredit:

"Some post-Fed consolidation emerged yesterday, although some stronger-than-expected US data did drag EUR-USD briefly below 1.3750. This is likely to be the theme today too, with further profit taking expected to offer some cushion to the downside and favor a pullback above 1.38."

  • Analyst Karen Jones at Comerzbank says:

"EUR/USD has severed its short term uptrend and given that the market has recently failed at its 2008-2014 downtrend and its 50% retracement at 1.3958, we consider that the market has recently topped and is likely to come under increasing downside pressure.

"Current position: Short 1.3916. Recommended trade: Lower the stop from 1.4020 to 1.3970. Target at 1.3500."

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Australian dollar forecast

  • Another great insight from Lee:

"Dealers note Asian central banks have offers 0.9090-0.91 in AUD/USD. Leveraged accounts continue to have good appetite for the Aussie. Reports of local corporates again bidding the pair in the low 0.90s.

"Stops are building sub-0.8990 in size. To the topside, if we take out 0.91, not much resistance until 200 DMA at 0.9145."

  • Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote Bank says:

"AUDUSD remains ranged above the 100-dma (0.9024). The technicals are flat given Chinese jitters of past weeks. The MACD is to remain positive for a daily close above 0.9036.

"Decent option bids are placed at 0.9040, the option barriers are to be tipped if AUDUSD eases below 0.9030. Sentiment is mixed below 0.9100. The key short-term resistance remains solid at 0.9080/0.9100 (Fibonacci 61.8% on Oct’13 – Jan’14 drop & optionality)."

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