Why the British pound has slumped against the Swedish Krona, and where to next for the rampant SEK?

 The British pound to Swedish Krona has slumped by 0.77 pct with GBP-SEK hitting 9.999 at 14.54 in London.

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The moves in GBP-SEK are purely a function of the Swedish side of the equation; Swedish GDP came to 0.6 pct – while 0.3 pct had been expected.

Y/y the increase was 1.7% against the expected 1.4%. Hence, GDP was a positive surprise, which made SEK increase by more than half a
point.

Are markets getting ahead of themselves?

But, are we witnessing an over-exuberance by currency market players? ie. has GBP-SEK been sold-off too aggressively?

Maybe say Jyske Bank.

Leander Dreyer at Jyske Bank believes we should look deeper into today's data, and realise the Krona could pull-back:

"If we look at the sub-components we are slightly more reluctant, as the reason behind the rise in net exports is based on a more significant decline in imports than exports.

"In addition, industrial inventories are increasing and corporate investments are falling. These are all signs that the general economy is slightly reluctant. In terms of positive news we point out that consumer spending contributes strongly to growth, which is important if growth is to continue.

"The conclusion is that the actual growth was close to the expected growth. This was the reason why SEK lost steam relatively fast again.

"What next - are interest rates to be reduced at the next interest-rate meeting?

"For quite some time, our view has been that market expectations of an interest-rate cut at the next meeting are too aggressive.

"The positive GDP increases the likelihood that the central bank will not cut interest rates at the next meeting or two. In our view, the next important indicator is the CPI figure on 11 June.

"Remember that the next interest-rate meeting will be held on 2 July."

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