There is no domestic data due out of the UK economy on Monday so direction in the British pound will be derived largely from technical considerations and moves in the all-important US dollar and Euro.

16:40: Housing data in focus on Tuesday

The first eco event of the week comes at 9:30 on Tuesday morning with the publication of Mortgage Approvals by the British Bankers' Association (BBA). This provides a measure the number of home loans issued by the BBA during the previous quarter and gives an insight into the financial health of the economy.

Analysts are expecting a reading of 38.5, up from last month's 36.1.

A beat would be mildly GBP positive.

16:18: RBS see EUR-GBP exchange rate biased to the downside

In their latest Sterling Strategy Weekly publication RBS advise that they see a more GBP supportive environment.

Paul Robson at RBS says:

"For GBP/USD, a gentle squeezing of short GBP positions remains likely with the event risks of last week gone. Risks would be more two-way up at 1.54 and turn to downside as spot approaches 1.57. While we're still concentrating on the policy event risks of early August to provide the next directional signal, talk of sustained recovery in the UK should be mildly GBP supportive.

"On this, we continue to believe that the scope for UK data to surprise is becoming increasingly limited. The first estimate of Q2 GDP due Thursday could be a watershed. Our bias for EUR/GBP remains biased to the downside, with risks more heavily skewed this way around September's ECB meeting and German elections."

15:22: GBP-USD still in an ascending structure

Adding to the positive view on GBP-USD expressed @ 15:00 we hear a couple more positive views.

RoboForex tell clients:

"Pound is still forming an ascending structure. The market reached the target of this wave and is not expected to extend it without forming any consolidation patterns. We think, today the price may start a correction towards the level of 1.5040 and then form a new ascending structure to reach the target at 1.5550.

MIG Bank:

"GBP/USD continues to move higher. However, a strong resistance lies at 1.5305. Hourly supports are at 1.5154 and 1.5028. Another resistance is at 1.5346."

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15:00: GBP-USD buy strategy issued

Analyst Matt Weller at GFT has flagged GBP-USD as a buy this afternoon:

"Buy if GBP/USD dips to 1.5310, stop at 1.5260, target at 1.5370.

"The GBP/USD continued to grind higher as trade opened this week, breaking through the key 1.5300 level that we had been watching throughout last week. A clear bullish trend line has formed at this point, suggesting that bulls will continue to support the pair on any short-term pullbacks. Moving forward, a continuation up toward the Monthly Pivot Point at 1.5376 appears likely, and any dips back toward previous resistance at 1.5300 may provide a favourable buy entry.

"To take advantage of the strength in GBP/USD, traders could set a limit buy order at 1.5310 (just ahead of previous-resistance-turned-support at 1.5300) with a stop at 1.5260 (back under the 1.5300 level and bullish trend line) and a target at 1.5370 (ahead of resistance at the Monthly Pivot Point)."

14:07: Spot rates in early afternoon

A look at the spot markets shows the British pound to be up vs the USD and EUR, but experiencing weakness elsewhere. The theme of currency markets today is that of a broadly weaker USD.

• The GBP-USD is 0.41 pct higher at 1.5330.
• The GBP-EUR is 0.22 pct up at 1.1642.
• The GBP-AUD is 0.28 pct down at 1.6603.
• The GBP-CHF is 0.2 pct lower at 1.4397.

Please note: The above quotes are taken from the wholesale spot markets; your bank will affix its own discretionary spread to the numbers. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to undercut your banks offer, thus delivering more currency. Please learn more here.

12:12: British pound in notable setback vs Japanese Yen

The pound versus Japanese Yen is 0.27 pct in the red at 153.26.

Analysts at RoboForex tell clients GBP could head towards 151.37:

"Strong intraday setback from this morning's high of 153.84, slipping below 153.02 support is slowly jeopardising the upmove from 148.78 low and further clearance below 152.18 will confirm stronger damage towards downside, exposing 151.62 ahead of 151.37."

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10:23: Sterling up on Royal Baby excitement?

Never one to be left out of the zeitgeist, we weave the Royal Baby into today's GBP commentary.

Thanks Richard Driver at Caxton FX:

"The pound has opened in positive mood this morning and this could well be connected with the news that Kate Middleton has gone into labour. The country has been swept up in the Jubilee and the Royal Wedding in the past couple of years and this has been a genuine boost to the UK economy, speculators could well be anticipating more retail spending as a result of the Royal Birth."

10:04: GDP is the big GBP moving data this week

What does the domestic economy have in store for the British pound this week?
Mortgage approval data – a leading indicator of demand for housing – has the potential to have some influence when it is released on Tuesday.

GDP data is however the main market mover.

Barclays say EUR-GBP will be prone to large movements in response:

"The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP on Thursday will be the highlight for the GBP this week. UK preliminary estimates are known to be volatile, as they contain only about 60% of the hard data needed to measure GDP, and EUR/GBP tends to respond well to any surprises in the data. Although our forecast is in line with consensus at 0.6% q/q, the estimate is worth attention as a potential source of short-term volatility."

9:50: Barclays remain bearish on Pound sterling

More forecasts from Barclays. Yuki Sakasai says:

"The MPC surprised the market last week by voting unanimously to hold the amount of QE unchanged. The diminished likelihood of further QE and the aggressive use of forward guidance to bring rates lower suggest a slower pace of GBP depreciation than otherwise, but we believe the UK economy will continue to face both external and internal headwinds in coming months despite recent data showing tentative signs of recovery, and the BoE is expected to keep its monetary policy stance accommodative for the foreseeable future.

"We maintain our medium-term bearish view on the GBP."

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9:22: Barclays backing the US dollar into year end

Yuki Sakasai at Barclays believes all-round US strength will be the key theme on FX markets for the remainder of 2013:

"We think that the modest pickup in cyclical activity and inflation and steady improvement in labor market conditions will be sufficient for the Fed to start tapering its asset purchases and expect the USD bullish trend to gather momentum into year-end as the contrast in monetary policy stance between the Fed and the rest of the world becomes even clearer. We would use any pullback in USD as an opportunity to enter structural long USD positions."

7:16: Spot rates - losses vs AUD

The British pound sterling (Currency:GBP) is flat against the USD and EUR, losses are seen against AUD and other commodity currencies on the back of higher commodity prices this Monday morning:

• The pound to euro exchange rate is marginally higher than seen at Friday's close at 1.1620.
• The pound to US dollar exchange rate is 0.08 pct higher at 1.5280.
• The pound to Australian dollar is 0.42 pct lower at 1.6580.

Please note: The above quotes are taken from the wholesale spot markets; your bank will affix its own discretionary spread to the numbers. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to undercut your banks offer, thus delivering more currency. Please learn more here.

7:15: Short term forecasts for the British pound

Looking at the technicals we see the pound sterling is forecast to be supported in the near term.

Trading Central say:

GBP-USD: "LONG positions above 1.523 with targets at 1.53 & 1.5335. The pair and the RSI are supported by rising trend lines."

EUR-GBP: "SHORT positions below 0.8645 with 0.8575 & 0.8555 as next targets. The pair has broken below a rising trend line and is now in a bearish channel."

GBP-AUD: "As long as 1.656 is support look for 1.67. the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the pair is trading above both its 20 and 50 MAs (respectively at 1.6601 and 1.6514)."

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