British Pound Live on Tuesday the 4th of May: Short-term GBP forecasts versus EUR, AUD, CAD, NZD
- Written by: Will Peters
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Highlights:
@ 12:26: GBP short-term forecasts
@ 9:30: Construction PMI ahead of forecasts
16:11: What can sterling look forward to tomorrow?
More data tomorrow, the headline event being the Services Sector PMI release at half 9.
14:40: GBP in consolidation mode
Alongside its major currency peers we see the pound sterling consolidate in mid-afternoon trade.
"For the most part we haven’t seen any new significant extremes among the majors today, and we could be in for a bit more of this consolidation mode as the market looks toward some of the bigger macro events on Thursday and Friday," says Shaun Osborne at TD Securities in reference to the Bank of England and European Central Bank interest rate meetings.
12:25: CaxtonFX forecasts
Richard Driver at CaxtonFX gives his verdict for major GBP crosses for today:
GBP/EUR: "GBP has failed to rally on the back of this morning's UK construction PMI figure, which revealed a return to growth at last. It is hard to ignore the solid demand out there for the euro at present. €1.17 is the current price. "
GBP/USD: "Sterling is trading at $1.53 and the dollar could well continue to suffer from yesterday’s gloomy US growth update. "
"GBP/NZD is trading above 1.90 this morning and upward progress could well slow up today."
GBP/CAD: "The pound is trading up at an impressive 1.58 and this uptrend looks insatiable at present."
GBP/AUD: "This pair trades at 1.58 and focus now turns to the aussie GDP figure this evening. "
EUR/USD: "The euro is trading pretty robustly above $1.3050 this morning and it’s hard to bet against more euro gains today, particularly with risk appetite picking up this morning.
10:18: GBP-EUR slides as Eurozone inflation increases
Inflation in the Eurozone has risen to 1.4 pct from 1.2 pct last month - this has added further pressure on the pound to euro exchange rate.
9:30: PMI data beats expectations
UK PMI Construction (May) in at 50.8 versus 49.8 expected. A beat - sterling ticks up a tad.
8:30: GBP spot rates under pressure
Ahead of the UK Construction PMI we see sterling under pressure. However, in the context of yesterday's gains, GBP is firm:
The pound euro exchange rate is 0.11 pct down on Monday night's close at 1.1705.
The pound US dollar exchange rate is 0.11 pct in the red at 1.5305.
The pound Australian dollar rate is 0.8 pct in the blue at 1.5813.
Please Note: The above are wholesale market quotes; your bank will affix its own spread to the above when passing on their retail rates. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to beat your bank's offer, thus delivering you more currency. Please learn more here.
8:30: Halifax House Prices
House prices rose 0.2 pct in March and are set for a 'modest increase' over 2013 amid continued signs that the market is lifting, Halifax said today.
The second monthly increase in a row - they were up 0.5 pct in February - takes average prices to £163,943, up 1.1 pct on a year earlier.
The 0.5 pct figures is a beat on consensus forecasts for 0.3 pct growth.
8:25: BRC retail sales set the tone
Midnight saw the latest instalment of the British Retail Consortium Retail Sales Monitor data series was released overnight.
The figures are third-tier by today's data release standards with Halifax House Prices and the UK Construction PMI forming the focus.
Nevertheless, the BRC figures tell us the recovery is gathering pace.
UK retail sales rose in May as demand for furniture and flooring increased and temporary discounts lured shoppers, the BRC said.
Sales at stores open at least 12 months, measured by value, increased 1.8 percent from a year earlier, the London-based trade group and KPMG said in an e-mailed report today. Total sales rose 3.4 percent.