UK Inflation

Pound Sterling underperformed most other major currencies in early trade on Wednesday after a widely anticipated rebound in UK inflation underwhelmed expectations and services sector inflation fell back to a two-year low.

Pound Sterling was swamped with widespread losses as currency and interest rate markets responded to a further increase in one of the UK's most important measures of inflation barely more than a day out from the latest Bank of England (BoE) policy decision, leading to a wave of forecast changes among analysts and economists. 

Pound Sterling fell widely in the midweek trading session but its heaviest losses came in relation to the Krona after a new record for one measure of inflation appeared to stoke concerns about what might become of the UK economy as the Bank of England (BoE) effort to return inflation to the target continues from Thursday. 

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate soon gave back short-lived gains in midweek trade after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested an inflation genie may be seeping out of a lantern in London with a May consumer price outcome that is unlikely to have been welcomed by the Bank of England (BoE).

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate climbed from earlier lows in the final session of the week but its recovery could be limited if UK economic data encourages financial markets to maintain their sharply increased expectations for the Bank of England (BoE) Bank Rate.

Pound Sterling exchange rates fell widely in midweek trade after UK inflation fell less than many forecasters expected for the recent month with possible implications for the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate outlook, though analysts and economists have a wide range of views on the outlook.

Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill caused controversy this week when saying everybody must accept being poorer due to inflation but this wouldn't have been so if he also explained how inflation risks taking food directly from the plates of people in some of the world's very poorest countries. 

UK CPI inflation came in below analyst estimates when released mid-week, resulting in a softer Pound Sterling.

Inflation expectations are back at nine-year highs according to a Bank of England survey, maintaining pressure on the central bank to pursue higher interest rates.

GBP fell following some hotter-than-expected UK inflation data that suggested the Bank of England could not yet afford to quit its interest rate hiking cycle.

The dramatic plunge in sterling and UK gilt prices following Kwarteng’s unsupported tax cuts announcement drew many to radical conclusions.

UK inflation could be around five percent higher than otherwise from April 2023 if the latest Chancellor's plan to means-test access to the government's Energy Price Guarantee goes ahead, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics, as this would see further price increases passed on to households.

Pound Sterling was left limping momentarily against the Dollar and Euro after Office for National Statistics data sugggested inflation rose further than expected in a September outcome that does little on its own to discourage the Bank of England (BoE) from raising interest rates aggressively in November.

The Organization for Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia agreed this week to cut production of oil by an amount equivalent to two percent of global supply in a cartel decision that means more inflation and comes as further grim news for an already-dark UK economic outlook.

The main UK inflation rate ebbed in August but core inflation reached a new high as price pressures broadened out across the economy, adding to the risk of the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee voting for something like its own modern day Charge of the Light Brigade in September.

GBP was softer after it was reported headline UK CPI inflation was lower in August than in July, suggesting the peak in price rises might have now passed.

GBP was higher after it was announced UK inflation hit 10.1% in July, leaving it more than five times higher than the Bank of England's target.

Workers are returning to the jobs market, headline inflation to plunge in 2023, Bank of England to end rate hike cycle sooner than expected.

UK inflation could peak at 12% in October according to a number of new economic forecasts made in the wake of Wednesday's release of inflation data for June that showed prices are already rising at their fastest pace in 40 years.

The Pound dipped briefly against a softer Dollar on Wednesday after Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures revealed a new high for UK inflation but otherwise offered little sign of the "second round effects" that could catalyse a more aggressive interest rate response from the Bank of England (BoE).