Latest Exchange Rate Forecasts: Pound Sterling, Euro, US dollar, Aus + Canadian Dollars

Modified: Tuesday, 11 March 2014 09:31 GMT
Written by: Gary Howes

Pound Sterling Live presents a selection of the more credible short-term exchange rate forecasts for the week ahead.

The pound sterling has had a poor start to the new week with losses being seen across the board. But what does the outlook for the UK currency, and the other major FX pairings have in store? On Tuesday there is some industrial data on tap as well as an appearance of Mark Carney and the MPC before the UK parliament which should provide some action.

Euro pound exchange rate forecast

"The latest bounce doesn’t yet change the bearish picture as long as resistance holds at 0.8350. There’s scope for weakness in the near-term to break below support at 0.8158 and then onto test 0.8082." - UBS

"Sterling remains also well bid and EUR/GBP remains well anchored in the 0.8160/0.8350 trading range. Even after the ECB meeting, we think that the topside of this range remains tough to break, as long as UK eco data remain reasonably strong." - Piet Lammens at KBC Markets.

Pound dollar exchange rate forecast

Swissquote Bank:

"GBPUSD broke February uptrend channel base on Monday and trades below 1.6668 on Tuesday, the former Fibonacci 100.00% & 21-dma. The MACD (12, 26) stepped in the red zone. Due in the morning, industrial production data is important, any negative surprise should intensify the selling pressures. Next support is eyed at 1.6585 (Feb 24th low), then 1.6540 (50-dma).

"Levels above 1.67 seem to be slipping away from the pound as the dollar buyers drive the rate downwards. The greenback is being supported by the solid employment report and speculation that the Fed will vote to continue to wind down purchases when they meet next week." - Sasha Nugent at CaxtonFX.

"As bullish conditions persist, there’s potential for more upside in the near-term to resistance at 1.6878. A break above this will open critical resistance at 1.7043. Support is at 1.6584." - UBS.

"The pair traded last week within a sideways range after the sharp drop with the kick-start of trading last week. The pair is stable above the Linear Regression Indicator 55 and above 1.6600 and that keeps the bullish bias intact. We will depend this week on stability above 1.6600 to favor bullishness, but a daily closing above 1.6750 is now required to support the positive outlook. AROON shows a drop in upside momentum and MACD is trading sideways and that requires a breach of 1.6750 to confirm the intraday upside move." - ICN Financial.

Pound / Canadian dollar forecast

"Sterling/CAD failed to sustain the soft tone seen earlier yesterday and although the cross closed below the 1.8540 point we highlighted yesterday, it was barely a tick below and hardly decisive. We expected losses to remain limited and that seems to be the case for the moment. New highs for the cross would be a plus as the market feels like it is getting a little bogged down in the range seen so far this year. We remain bullish and continue to target 1.92." - TD Securities.

Euro dollar exchange rate forecast

"The pair extended its strength to post a new high on Friday and the next major resistance focus is at 1.4052. Any setbacks in the interim will be limited to support at 1.3812 ahead of 1.3708." - UBS.

"For now, we look out how long it takes for the currency mark to conclude the post-ECB repositioning. The previous top at 1.3893 is still under test, but a clear break didn’t occur yet. The ongoing tensions on Ukraine, a negative open of the European equity markets this morning are no help for the euro, but it is not a strong enough reason to already reconsider EUR/USD shorts at this time. We maintain the view that a decline in EUR/USD will in the first place have to come from better than expected US data, not from renewed speculation on further ECB easing." - KBC Markets.

Australian dollar forecast

"The bullish development on last Thursday was the close above 0.9086 resistance. This increases the risk for more upside to 0.9209 and then 0.9339. Support is at 0.8973 ahead of 0.8891." - UBS on AUD-USD.

"AUD/USD retreats sharply after hitting 0.9085 resistance level, as price formed a shooting star bearish candle on Friday, hinting a potential setback. For now, we may see further downside pressure within the context of the overall sideways range, and a retest of 0.8900 areas. Alternatively, a break with stability above 0.9100 may confirm a more prolonged bullish rebound." - ICN Financial.