Euro Cedes Key Level to Resurgent Dollar as Analysts Debate Outlook

-Euro down through key 1.2150 level, gets no support from ECB.

-BofAML and Commerzbank forecast more losses for EUR/USD.

-ING Group and Societe Generale say rout is over, look to buy.

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The Euro-to-Dollar rate fell below a key level of support this week after traders were left empty handed at Thursday's European Central Bank meeting and the greenback continued its advance against almost all international rivals, leaving analysts divided in their outlook for the currency pair.

The US Dollar emerged resurgent from a months-long decline this week after American bond yields reached a multi-year high, boosting the relative attractiveness of US assets when compared with those of other currencies.

This helped force the EUR/USD down to the 1.2150 line of support that had held firm ever since the exchange rate began receding from its year to date peak in late January.

"EUR/USD has traded through and closed below the 1.2155 February low. It has sold off to 1.2092, the September 2017 low, which we would allow to hold the initial test –below this lies the 200 day ma at 1.2010. Longer term we will allow for losses back to the 55 week ma at 1.1785," says Karen Jones, an analyst at Commerzbank. "Intraday rallies are indicated to remain capped by the 1.2265/1.2210 resistance."

Above: Euro-to-Dollar rate shown at daily intervals.

EUR/USD broke below that threshold Thursday when the US Dollar onslaught continued and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi responded to questions about Eurozone monetary policy and economic growth with the verbal equivalent of a Gallic shrug, declining to provide impetus for a renewed push higher by the single currency.

"The unexpected drop in soft and hard data seems to have created new uncertainty at the ECB as regards the future path of monetary policy. It is very hard to believe but according to ECB President Mario Draghi, the ECB did not discuss the monetary policy outlook at all. The most cautious version of buying time, avoiding new speculation and really saying nothing," says Carsten Brzeski, chief Germany and Eurozone economist at ING Group.

Draghi's apparent observance of the central banking world's answer to Omerta comes hard on the heels of a first quarter period that saw Eurozone economic momentum come off the boil while the single currency marched higher based on what policymakers described, in the minutes to their previous meeting, as "speculation".

"We have been arguing that the ECB has no implications for the EUR in H1 and that it is mostly about the USD in the FX market for now," says Athanasios Vamvakidis, an FX strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "However, we expect further weakening of EUR/USD in the months ahead, as we see US data improving further on the back of the fiscal stimulus, Fed hiking consistently with the dot plot, and US companies repatriating profits following the tax reform."

Vamvakidis and the BAML team have advocated that clients begin betting the EUR/USD rate undergoes another sharp fall over the second quarter, for the above reasons, and are targeting a move all the way back down to 1.15. This would be the lowest level for the exchange rate since July 2017.

Above: Euro-to-Dollar rate shown at weekly intervals.

The BAML trade recommendation, which comes with a stop loss of 1.21, ties with the broad thrust of comments by Commerzbank's Jones, who is usually on the money with many of her EUR/USD calls. However, not everybody is quite ready to give up on the single currency just yet.

"Nothing much from the ECB yesterday has allowed USD strength to broaden into Europe," says Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Group. "Momentum is with the USD for the time being and 1.2000/2050 looks to be the key 2Q18 battle-ground for EUR/USD. We can see it holding."

The ING team have also been ahead of the curve and on the button with their EUR/USD forecasts. They are looking for a EUR/USD rate of 1.30 at year-end and 1.35 before the end of 2019. It's worth noting that, despite their bearish call on the EUR/USD for the second quarter, Bank of America strategists forecast that the exchange rate should recover to at least 1.20 before year-end.

Others are also still bullish, erring away from calling an end to the rally of the last year and instead, waiting for another opportunity to buy.

"We would need a recovery in 2019 Euro area growth expectations to revive the EUR/USD uptrend. Domestic factors will also drive other currency pairs, hurting some politically sensitive currencies and helping oil-sensitive ones," says Kit Juckes, chief foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale. "We are still waiting for levels to buy EUR/USD and sell USD/JPY."

The Euro-to-Dollar rate was quoted 0.01% higher at 1.2107 an hour ahead of the London close Friday. It is now up by just 0.96% for the year to date, after having reversed an earlier 4% gain. 

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