Raiffeisen: 1.20 in Euro / Dollar Rate Still Achievable, but it Could be the Limit

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate has seen its impressive uptrend stall, but it is by no means dead we are told.

Year-to-date, the Euro is up 8% against sterling and 12% against the US Dollar. While the trend against the former is showing no signs of weakness, the advance agains the latter is showing some fatigue.

In the past two weeks, the EUR/USD has, on balance, virtually not moved at all. The question remains whether this has put an end to the sharp appreciation trend of the Euro, or if it is just a breather,” says Jörg Angele at Raiffeisen Research in Vienna.

The immediate concern for EUR/USD rests with the speech European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is scheduled to deliver tomorrow evening in Jackson Hole, Wyoming at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Symposium.

The market does have a tough nut to crack in the form of resistance just above 1.18; a move above here is required to reignite one of the currency market’s best-looking trend of 2017.

“The area around EUR/USD 1.1830 should be monitored: here the exchange rate formed a triple top this week,” notes Asmara Jamaleh, a currency analyst with Intesa Sanpaolo.

The natural target being eyed by the market and analysts lies at the round number of 1.20.

Some had suggested that a summer overshoot in EUR/USD would take the market to this level ahead of consolidation. However, it could be that the consolidation is happening at lower levels.

Yet, “we assume that the 1.20 EUR/USD mark will still be tackled in the coming weeks,” says Angele.

But this level could represent a more sustainable top.

“For the time being though, we do not accord the euro a sustainable exceedance of this level; first and foremost because the ECB should start verbally dampening the Euro’s
altitude flight from this level,” says Angele.

This is also suggested by the minutes of the most recent interest rate meeting where some members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council expressed concern over the currency’s strength as it might halt the Eurozone’s impressive rate of growth.

“Accordingly, an even stronger Euro would not serve monetary authorities right,” says Angele.

Raiffeisen Bank assume that ECB President Draghi’s speech to be held late on Friday in Wyoming should avoid every kind of wording that would further encourage Euro appreciation.