Dollar Softer On Soft ADP and Labour Cost Reports, NY Bancorp Share Selloff Also Weighs

Image © Adobe Images

The Dollar was softer following the release of U.S. ADP employment data which indicated slowing U.S. employment, adding to dovish Fed rate sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Also contributing to the weaker Dollar was news that a regional lender posted a surprising loss, potentially indicating a cooling economic backdrop.

In addition, some big-name AI stocks missed earnings expectations, in the process undercutting the U.S. exceptionalism narrative that has for so long underpinned Dollar outperformance.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate firmed above 1.27 as the U.S. trading session proceeded, while the Euro to Dollar exchange rate overturned earlier losses to quote at 1.0846, burnishing the credentials of the 1.020 support zone.

Private sector employment increased by 107K jobs in January, according to the January ADP National Employment Report, which was below the market expectation for 145K and down on December's 158K. Annual pay was up 5.2% year-over-year, down from 5.4% in December.

Also on the docket was the Employment Cost Index, which rose 0.9% in the fourth quarter, making for the smallest quarterly gain in two years.

"With the year-over-year change in the ECI down to 4.2% from over 5% this time last year, the Fed's preferred measure of labour costs is boosting confidence that the reduction in inflation over the past 18 months may be sustained," says Sarah House, an economist at Wells Fargo.

Questions regarding the ongoing robust nature of the U.S. economy were meanwhile raised after shares in New York Community Bancorp fell after the lender reported a surprise loss.

This weighed on smaller lenders, with the KBW Regional Banking Index down nearly 4%.

A pillar of U.S. Dollar strength in the current multi-year cycle has been the exceptional performance of the U.S. economy and its stock markets relative to peers. But this exceptionalism was further queried midweek as the Nasdaq Composite fell after sharp downward moves in shares of tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet.

Track the USD and GBP with your own custom rate alerts. Set Up Here

Shares of Alphabet dropped more than 6% and were on pace for their worst day since Oct. 25 as disappointing ad revenue overshadowed better-than-expected earnings and sales.

Shares in Microsoft and AMD slipped 1.3% and 3%, respectively, on lower-than-expected forward guidance after posting quarterly results.

The developments could offer the Federal Reserve a reason to steer the market towards a future of lower interest rates later today.

Though no rate change is expected, traders will be attentive to post-announcement comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell for hints at the path and timing of expected rate cuts in 2024.

Powell may note success in reducing inflation and a vibrant U.S. economy, though with inflation stalled in the 3% area since June 2023, he may be reluctant to signal an early pivot to lower rates until progress to the Fed's 2% target resumes, which may underpin the Dollar.