Why Investors Could buy the Euro in the Wake of Today's ECB Event

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• EUR/USD spot at publication: 1.1927
• Bank transfer rates (indicative guide): 1.1510-1.1590
• Money transfer specialist rates (indicative): 1.1844
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The Euro has come under pressure over recent weeks, falling against both the Dollar and British Pound.

However, the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting, which is due to conclude in Frankfurt today, could prompt a rebound in the single currency we are told.

"While the European Central Bank is not expected to make any policy changes at Thursday's meeting, markets have priced in some form of intervention to cap the recent rise in euro zone government bond yields, suggesting scope for a EUR/USD bounce if the ECB fails to deliver," says John Noonan, a Reuters market analyst:.

The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) fell below the psychologically significant 1.20 area in the first week of March and has stayed under pressure since.

It heads into the ECB meeting at 1.1930 and a 'sell the rumour, buy the fact' reaction could therefore see bulls reclaim 1.20.

The Pound-to-Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) would meanwhile likely come under pressure were the EUR/USD to rally.

The Pound is locked in an uptrend against the Euro and we report on Thursday that one analyst we follow says a move higher to 1.20 in GBP/EUR remains possible.

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But, should the ECB event trigger a rally in the Euro, this upside target could be put on ice.

There is an air of mystery heading into the March ECB meeting as Noonan notes commitment to keeping a lid on borrowing costs has been vague so far. Beyond saying they are committed to "maintaining favourable financing conditions", the ECB has not laid out any specific levels or conditions that will spur them to act.

Eurozone government bonds have fallen in value over recent weeks, meaning the yield they pay to investors has shot higher. This is particularly the case for longer-dated bonds which are particularly exposed to rising inflation in the future.

Investors sense inflation will rise sharply over coming months and years, therefore they are demanding a greater return on any investments made in long-dated government bonds.

The impact of rising bond yields is a rise in the cost of finance in the economy, therefore the ECB will likely be concerned that the rise in yields poses a headwind to the post-covid recovery.

Many analysts believe the ECB may front-load buying under their quantitative easing programme - known as the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) - to help cap yields.

Noonan notes that others analyst think the statement will be similar to previous statements and President Christine Lagarde will try to talk down yields by emphasising the ECB has plenty of tools and is prepared to use them.

"Long-term yields in Europe and globally have eased slightly this week and this may dampen the ECB's sense of urgency to back words with action. That could disappoint EUR/USD bears who sold earlier in anticipation of a 'dovish' ECB event," says Noonan.

He says that EUR/USD support is at the 200-day moving average at 1.1830, while resistance comes in at the 10 Daily Moving Average at 1.1975.

"A break above 1.1980 would suggest a short-term bottom may be in place," says Noonan.

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