Euro Exchange Rates Today: 17/02 EUR Forecasts, Predictions and Latest Comment

Modified: Monday, 10 March 2014 21:23 GMT
Written by: Gary Howes

Euro rates are today trading firm on Monday morning with technical predictions advocating for positive to mixed trading in coming sessions.

The calendar is very thin in Europe, while US markets are closed in observance of Presidents day. So, more technical trading is on the cards. At least for now, there are no signs of a dollar comeback. The US dollar is holding near recent lows against the euro and the yen.

In Europe, markets will keep an eye at the political developments in Italy, but there is no indication that this will affect sentiment on the EMU and on the euro negatively.

A look at the euro exchange rate complex today shows:

The euro dollar exchange rate (EUR-USD) is 0.08 pct higher at 1.3703.
The euro pound exchange rate (EUR-GBP) is 0.21 pct higher at 0.8193.
The euro Australian dollar exchange rate (EUR-AUD) is 0.04 pct higher at 1.5165.

Note: All EUR quotes here refer to the wholesale spot market. Your bank will charge a spread at their discretion when passing on a retail rate. However, an independent FX provider is so well placed on the market that they are able to deliver you up to 5% more currency. Please learn more here.

Euro dollar exchange rate forecasts

Below are a selection of the latest exchange rate forecasts for the euro. The forecasts are all technical in nature. We would recommend readers consider the views held at UniCredit Bank where analysts are advocating for a move higher in EUR-USD to 1.4 this year.

The views can be found on Friday's live coverage.

Concerning their latest forecast for the euro dollar exchange rate, UBS say:

"Any further recovery will find resistance at 1.3739. A close above this would be a bullish development opening the way to 1.3893. Support is at 1.3562 ahead of 1.3477."

Craig Erlam at Alpari UK gives his predictions for the euro exchange rate saying:

"The euro is trading flat against the dollar at the start of the week, although the gap higher over the weekend has given it a slight bullish tone. The pair still hasn’t managed to break above 24 January highs and is therefore still technically in a downtrend, but there are signs that this could change in the coming days. That said, the pair also hasn’t yet broken above 1.3733, the 61.8% retracement of the move from 27 December highs to 3 February lows, so this still looks like a retracement.

"We’ve also just seen a bearish engulfing pattern on the 4-hour chart which suggests we’re going to see further selling as the session goes on. The first major test here will come around 1.3682, a previous level of resistance that will now be tested as a new level of support. If the pair fails to break this level it would again create new higher lows for the pair which would add further weight to the shorter term uptrend and lead to further pressure on those previous highs. While it’s not obvious where this pair is headed in the medium term, based on where it is currently trading I think this should become much clearer in the coming days."

KBC Markets reckon:

"At the end of last year, EUR/USD held in a rather tight range (1.3650/1.3893) within reach of the 2013 top. The Fed’s tapering of asset purchases was only a limited support for the dollar. The Fed convinced markets that a “real” tightening of monetary policy is still far away. At the same time, the market was not impressed by the ECB’s easing bias. At the start of this year, EUR/USD dropped below 1.3625, indicating a loss of momentum.

"Expectations for more ECB easing pushed EUR/USD below the 1.3508 correction low. However, a sustained break didn’t occur. Draghi’s comments at the February press conference and disappointing US payrolls sent EUR/USD back in the recent range. We maintain a cautiously negative bias LT. The ST momentum is neutral."