Latest Spanish House Price and Mortgage Data Confirms Slowing Growth

New data from Tinsa shows Spanish house prices rose 3.67% year-on-year in May 2019, reinforcing a recent slowdown in the growth rate.

Tinsa is one of the largest independent property valuation companies in Spain and their data is watched by both industry professionals and international buyers looking to purchase property in Spain.

The Spanish housing market had been in decline from 2008 to 2015, finally returning to growth in the first quarter of 2016.

Last year we saw 5 months of annualised growth in excess of 5% but these figures seem to have stabilised in recent months.

The graph below shows the annual growth rate for the last 3 years (using quarterly averages to smooth out monthly fluctuations).

The annual nationwide increase of 3.0% for last quarter (Q2 2019) hides a certain amount of regional variation and, with the exception of Cataluña/Barcelona, it’s the regional capitals that are leading the growth:

The Spanish National institute of Statistics (INE) publishes monthly data relating to sales volumes, number of mortgages granted and mortgage size.

Despite a clear seasonal variation, the recovery in the Spanish property market can be seen in the graph of quarterly property purchases. Every quarterly total since April 2014 has shown an increase on the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

The latest housing statistics from the INE shows Existing Home Sales in Spain decreased to 33.76 thousand in June, from 39.25 thousand in May 2019.

However, this still sits well above the long-term average of 23.21 thousand for the 2007 to 2019 period.

The number of mortgages granted over this period shows a similar trend and the percentage of mortgages as a proportion of total sales has remained within 60-75% during the last 5 years.

Recent figures show a fall in the average mortgage size from €125,341 to €124,655 (down 0.5%) although the annual variation showed a slight rise of 0.7%. The general trend of the average mortgage size is upwards with all but one month in the last twelve showing an increase on the same month a year earlier.

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