Pound-Canadian Dollar Forecast: "Grinding Bid" Intact
- Written by: Gary Howes
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- GBP/CAD moving towards top of range
- EUR/CAD looking well supported
- USD/CAD up on stock market decline
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- GBP/CAD reference rates at publication:
- Spot: 1.7461
- Bank transfer rates (indicative guide): 1.6850-1.6972
- Money transfer specialist rates (indicative): 1.7304-1.7374
- More information on securing specialist rates, here
- Set up an exchange rate alert, here
The Pound and Euro are predicted to maintain a slight positive bias against the Canadian Dollar in the near-term by a noted currency analyst at one of Canada's main lenders, however the Canadian currency is tipped to have the better of its U.S. cousin.
A regular technical research briefing from Scotiabank's Shaun Osborne shows the Canadian Dollar to be losing value to the Pound and Euro and further losses are likely, but the moves are by no means substantial.
Indeed, Canadian Dollar exchange rates remain anchored to longer-term ranges with regards to the two European currencies.
The Pound-to-Canadian Dollar exchange rate is higher at the time of writing on September 08, going to 1.7466: note the pair has not closed above 1.7489 since April 19.
This observation alone suggests some substantive resistance is approaching which could stymie any meaningful advance by the Pound.
"The GBP retains a grinding bid, however, and although short-term trend studies are weak, the broader technical undertone for the cross remains more bullish than anything," says Osborne.
The analyst notes the low 1.73s "still offer solid support for the GBP".
Osborne says gains through 1.7420 should unlock additional upside for the Pound towards 1.7475/1.7525.
The Euro-to-Canadian Dollar exchange rate is meanwhile found to be maintaining gains above the 55-day moving average.
"A bullish alignment of trend signals across the short, medium and longer term DMI oscillators suggests the cross is poised to remain well supported but we think the long-term, sideways range will remain intact," says Osborne.
At the time of writing the Euro-Canadian Dollar exchange rate is quoted at 1.5017.
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The all-important headline U.S. Dollar-Canadian Dollar pairing is meanwhile a chunky 0.5% higher on the day at 1.2705, a move that comes in sympathy with a broader decline in global equity markets and commodity prices.
September 08 is characterised by deterioration in investor sentiment with some financial publications saying the moves are linked to concerns that global growth dynamics are fading.
A global economic slowdown looks to be centred on Asian countries which are seeing rising Covid cases in their populations which are still subject to low vaccination rates.
The story is not a new one but the market's reaction confirms bouts of profit-taking linked to shifts in sentiment will prove supportive of the Dollar.
"The key macro theme right now is the deterioration in the growth/inflation picture," says Bipan Rai, North America Head of FX Strategy at CIBC.
He says risks to global growth are lower for several reasons:
- Delta cases,
- lackluster recovery in services,
- moderation in enthusiasm from H1,
- slowing credit cycle in China,
- progression towards tighter monetary policy globally),
- while global inflation is expected to moderate to a higher level.
"This is a challenging backdrop for risk assets – including pro-cyclical commodities and FX," says Rai.
Nevertheless, Osborne says seasonal trends should continue to favour the Canadian Dollar against the U.S. Dollar "over the next few weeks before the USD can perhaps stage its typical Q4 rally."
"We rather feel the mid-1.26s may cap the USD for now but this is not an especially high conviction view. Support is 1.2475/00," adds Osborne.
