Reserve Bank of Australia's Next Move "Up; it's Just a Question of When"
The Australian Dollar changed little after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate meeting but it did mark a highpoint for the currency from which it spent the rest of the day falling.
The RBA maintained the status quo in their meeting, not changing the interest rate from its 1.5% level, as expected, and only tweaking the statement slightly.
In relation to the outlook for the globe, important to Australia because of its exports, the statement was positive and upgraded its commentary noting a, “broad-based pick-up,” where before it had been more specific.
There was a mention of the rise in commodity prices and their positive contribution to Australia’s terms of trade, that is its aggregate cost of imports versus exports, however, this was offset slightly by a new phrase suggesting commodity prices were now reversing.
On growth, the statement mentioned it would be rising by 3.0% where as in the previous statement there had been no mention of specific figures.
The report was more upbeat about employment saying it was mixed, with some positive signs where as in April the statement had said the labour market was “softening”.
The comments about inflation were marginally more upbeat with the Bank omitting the rather negative comment that “inflation remains low”, and saying instead that “inflation has picked up in line with the Bank’s expectations”, while “core inflation is a little higher than last year”.
The comments about the uneven Housing market were unchanged from April.
Analysts reaction were marginally positive in that the statement clarified that it was not just the overheating housing market which was preventing the RBA from cutting interest rates.
“Importantly, this reaffirms that the RBA’s recent decisions to leave the cash rate on hold are not just because they have concerns about the buoyant Sydney and Melbourne housing markets, but also because the central bank believes the current macroeconomic outlook does not warrant further monetary stimulus,” said HSBC’s Paul Bloxham.
He added that he saw the “next move,” from the RBA as “up; it’s just a question of when.”
Whilst ANZ bank’s Jo Master in his commentary on the meeting said he saw the RBA on hold for the “foreseeable future.”
