Best Pound Sterling to Aus Dollar Exchange Rates Ahead Could Lie Ahead Suggest Forecasts

Markets are currently delivering the best pound sterling to Australian dollar exchange rates for some time, while the latest technical forecasts suggest that more gains for GBP / AUD could come.

Friday has seen the pound to Aus dollar exchange rate maintain an even tone; the rate is quoted at 1.8213. The release of a strong US NFP figure has boosted the USD complex at the expense of the AUD which is seeing broad-based weakness.

These are the best AUD exchange rates seen since mid-March and momentum would seem to be in favour of further gains.

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On Thursday, the GBP has clawed back earlier losses against the Aus dollar thanks to some good economic data at the start of the new month.

Forecast for the pound sterling vs Aus dollar

The latest technical observations suggest that a pivot is seen lying at 1.818; this key level is now breached and the potential for further climbs towards 1.821 and then 1.822 a little further out.

Prior to these moves the GBP-AUD had been caught in a negative short-term technical configuration that threatened further declines.

The rate is by no means safe at present but the positive scenario is growing and we could yet see the best inter-month Aus dollar exchange rates.

Markets: US Q1 GDP shows weakness within a soft report

Real US GDP rose 0.1% q/q (saar) in Q4, well below consensus (1.2%) estimates.

"The good news in the report was personal consumption, which rose 3.0% on the quarter and contributed 2pp to overall growth. This is the second consecutive quarter of 3.0% or better growth in private consumption and suggests the consumer is much healthier than a year ago following the tax rate increases that went into effect in Q1 13," says Michael Gapen at Barclays.

However, goods consumption was fairly soft at 0.4%, likely due to adverse weather early in the quarter, and the bulk of the increase in consumption came from services, which was boosted by two means of support that Barclays would not expect to persist.

Looking ahead, Gapen is optimistic saying he expects consumption growth to remain stronger than in 2013, "but we expect the contribution from goods consumption to rise and the temporary support from utilities and health care to gradually wane."

Nevertheless, for the US dollar, today's data has provided a reason to sell. The USD is down across the board.