Our US Dollar exchange rate section focuses specifically on the USD side of the headline GBP/USD pairing.
By monitoring what the US Dollar, and the USD cross rates, are doing we can further understand how the USD is driving the British pound.
The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate pairing is of course also important for those nations that use the USD directly, and those countries that are pegged to the USD.
Heading into the start of 2013 there was no shortage of currency research houses forecasting the year to be that in which the US dollar made a comeback.
While the first half of the year did see strong USD gains, the outlook for the US currency deteriorated when it was realised that the US Federal Reserve would not actually cut back on its aggressive bond buying programme, known as quantitative easing.
"In light of the Fed’s decision not to taper, we have adjusted our year end FX and interest rate forecasts sufficiently to justify an update before the next issue of the IFO on October 14," said a note from Lloyds Bank Research follow the no-taper news.
The view was echoed across the FX community.
The overall dovish tone to a number of mid to late year FOMC meeting has led analysts to believe that tapering may now not begin until Q1 2014.
Thus the possibility of USD gains will be pushed back accordingly.
(Of course, this is provided US politicians play their part in keeping the economy stable).
Firmer data would raise the chances of a move in December 2013, if we are to believe Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments, the data would have to be significantly better and we do not think that evidence will be forthcoming by year-end.
Of course, financial markets will closely follow and react to data, events and any commentary that will inform the Fed’s decision.
"Although the change in view on Fed tapering has led us to revise our FX forecasts to show a weaker dollar near-term, we still favour a broadly stronger dollar in the year ahead as tapering will eventually start as the economy gathers further momentum," say Lloyds Bank.
Reflecting this, Lloyds advise that their end 2014 FX targets are relatively unchanged.
"However, the path that some take has been altered slightly. The yen will not weaken as much as previously expected; the euro will be stronger for longer before sliding later in 2014; while the Aussie dollar should hold up better before weakening in Q1 2014," says a note to clients.
More analysts are starting to predict a return to form for the US dollar as we move through the final days of 2013.
November 4,2013